The Gulf of Guinea
The Gulf of Guinea straddles several nations from Angola to Senegal and represents a major shipping route for business within the area. Popoolar, O.O and Olajuyigbe A.E., writing on Operationalising the Blue Economy in the Gulf of Guinea, Africa, described the areas as follows: “The region has oil reserves of 51.34 billion barrels and gas reserves of 202,346,000 million cubic feet. It is also endowed with lush rainforests, one of the world’s principal suppliers of oxygen. It also contains one of the richest fishing grounds in the world ….Ten of the sixteen nations in the Gulf of Guinea have proven oil reserves, with Nigeria and Angola leading the way, accounting for 88.6% of total oil production in the region. Minerals found in this region include petroleum products, bitumen, diamond, gold, tin manganese and silver.[1]
What is the economic importance of the Gulf of Guinea?
This region is an important maritime zone that holds prospects for the littoral states that border it. In 2007, Ghana discovered oil offshore, and this has brought in significant revenues that have supported its budget ever since. Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana’s neighbour to the west, has recoverable oil reserves of 100 million barrels and gas reserves of 1.1 trillion cubic feet[2] in its Exclusive Economic Zone. It is a matter of interest that the area explored within the Gulf of Guinea is much smaller relative to what is yet to be explored. Another key country, Nigeria, which is the economic giant of the region, has a number of natural resources with oil contributing the most to its revenues. Nigeria’s petroleum is estimated to contribute about 65% of its revenues and 88% of its foreign exchange earnings. Within the Ecowas region, Nigeria’s gas is delivered to a number of countries as part of a power pool controlled by the West Africa Gas Pipeline Company Ltd.
Besides the above, the Gulf of Guinea is a major shipping lane with the ports dotted along it being transit points for goods for the landlocked countries of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali. This area also holds a lot of history, as the coastline was the point of exit for many of its inhabitants during the era of the slave trade.
In recent times, however, the Gulf of Guinea has become a hotbed of activity that seeks to rival the slave trade before it. While no real estimates for the value of the resources underneath the sea exist, there has been interest from the major powers.
Koffi M. Kouakou[3], writing on the subject of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea asserts that the area has a population well in excess of a quarter of a billion people, along an area of about 2.9 million square miles. Indeed, the population of Nigeria alone is expected to quadruple by the year 2050. This presents a huge market for interested global players who can get an early foothold in a region with potential for the future, as a big market. Koffi asserts that any global power that controls this large basin of natural wealth will also command an enormous advantage in the maritime security and defence spheres in the region and its natural wealth. He further adds that: “There are already rampant suspicions that under the guise of maritime security, fighting maritime crimes and piracy, many global powers are establishing footholds in the region to solidify their positions to influence, control and exploit its immense natural wealth”.
It is worth noting that America, France and Britain are already in this area in one way or the other through maritime cooperation and other programmes such as the Africa Endeavour. This programme, in particular, seeks to bring senior military officers around the table for capacity-building, particularly in the area of communications. The strategy, over the years, has been to make friends and develop US-friendly individuals with the military architecture across Africa. Other Western nations have similar schemes all aimed at gaining a foothold in the Gulf of Guinea.
New & Emerging Challenges
The Gulf of Guinea (GG) has huge prospects for the development of the entire region and within the context of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), presents opportunity for maritime trade. In recent times, however, there have been a number of issues of concern that would exacerbate the existing challenges within the region.
Oil/Gas Discoveries and Investments
In the last 15 years, there have been significant discoveries of oil and gas, making the region attractive to investors. However, the majority of countries that have shown interest in the GG are from the West. Two of the key countries operating, for instance, in Ghana, are the United States and the United Kingdom. This is replicated across the region with key installations being foreign-owned. The growing incidence of interest shown, and investments being made from the West, while providing much-needed revenue and opportunities is a source of worry. Attacks are expected on these installations if the enemies of these countries find such installations easy targets. In addition to the petroleum investments, there are other investments in critical metals, including gold, diamond, bauxite etc. Recently, there have been discoveries of lithium, which has piqued interest. These discoveries are fueling new interest in natural resources and could ignite a scramble for West Africa in new ways not considered. The key question is whether West Africa and the Gulf are ready for this.
The Threat of Terrorism
The threat of terrorism in the region is a real one. It has been asserted that terrorists are seeking a direct link to the sea and the littoral states are targets to be eliminated to ensure this objective is achieved. Indeed, Cote d’Ivoire and Togo have experienced attacks in their countries and the instability of countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger fuel the fears expressed by security analysts. The porous borders, the principle of the free movement of people and goods and the lack of verifiable identity systems across the region are a major cause of concern that calls for vigilance.
Recent events in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have brought to the fore, a new scramble for power in West Africa with Russia’s purported support for the military regimes in the three countries. The new administrations in these countries have pulled out of ECOWAS, undermining the unity, cohesion and strength of the region. They were part of the West Africa Power Pool (WAPP), with plans on the board for a railway to run from northern Ghana to Ouagadougou and eventually link the other landlocked countries. This would then have facilitated trade and transportation within the region. While the pullout seems popular with the local populace, these regions are all landlocked and are dependent on the littoral states for access to the sea. Furthermore, their citizens may not have free access to the sea and may be required to obtain visas and other permits should ECOWAS insist on it. The future, should these countries be boxed in, would engender the festering of terrorist activities aimed at opening direct access to the coast. The weakest states along the Gulf would become targets.
The stark reality of the situation is captured in an article by Sindhu Dinesh a portion of which reads as follows:
‘The West African region has been gaining international attention on account of such factors like coups, exit of external powers like France, role of Russia, among others. The Global Terrorism Index 2022 Report notes that Sahel is home to ‘the world’s fastest growing and most-deadly terrorist groups’. West African countries like Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Nigeria are home bases for terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Union for Supporting Islam and Muslims (also known as Jama’a Nusratul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, JNIM), Boko Haram and Islamic State (IS) affiliates like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). In its key findings, the Global Terrorism Index 2022 Report assessed that JNIM is one of the ‘fastest growing terrorist groups globally’ having recorded the ‘largest increase (approximately 69 per cent) in the number of attacks and deaths in 2021’ while, ISWA has been designated as the most lethal group in Sahel having been responsible ‘for an average of 15.2 deaths per attack’ in Niger[4].
The writer of the article makes more worrisome additions, stating that the entry points, particularly into Ghana, are extremely porous. A staggering 189 illegal entry points have been identified between Ghana and Burkina Faso alone. This is captured as follows:
Northern Ghana has become an ‘ideal fall-back zone’ for the armed groups of ISGS and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) which has established itself in the Cascades region since 2021. The cell phones of jihadists arrested by French forces of the ‘Barkhane Operation’ were found to be Ghanaian numbers of area code 233.[5]
Piracy
The International Maritime Bureau has consistently raised the issue of piracy and armed robbery at sea within the GG. The GG is a major shipping lane and also has key investments in oil and gas scattered across. Its exclusive economic zone is not only mineral-rich but is also among the largest fishing grounds in the world. Consequently, it has seen increased activity of pirates since 2008. IBM states that in 2022 there was a lull but saw increased activity in 2023. This has been captured as follows:
The IMB recorded 65 cases of piracy and armed robbery against merchant ships worldwide in the first half of 2023. A significant number of these incidents occurred in the Gulf of Guinea, including all 14 reported cases in which seafarers were kidnapped.[6]
The incidents of piracy at sea affect all the littoral states in the GG. However, Nigeria seems to top the list with the highest number of incidents. Although well-resourced, the pirates are said to be using small crafts which are swift and can hide in creeks along the shoreline making the fight against them difficult. Nigeria has the best-resourced navy though and seems determined to work on this with the support of its neighbours. A map showing the areas most affected is shown below.
Illegal Fishing/Drugs/Illegal Migration/Arms Trafficking
The GG has become a key area for illegal fishing, drug trafficking, illegal migration and arms trafficking. This year, many nations on the continent will be holding elections, which are, in themselves, a source of worry. Tensions become high as the winner-take-all type of democracy breeds trouble and dissatisfaction. The scale of money that increasingly supports elections indicates the slippery slope many West African nations tread.
Illegal fishing occurs because foreign-owned vessels which are licensed by littoral states to fish, engage in illegal activities – including under-reporting, sales at sea, bribery of officials and sometimes murder at sea. Some of the local fisherfolk are active in transporting drugs from ships on the high seas to designated recipients in exchange for money. Sometimes, these people engage in illegal migration and the transportation of arms. The dynamics have changed and more investment in intelligence-gathering, risk analysis and deployment is required.
Conclusion
The GG has become a major problem in the fight against all forms of maritime evil. The appeal of the region as an investment destination would be undermined significantly if efforts are not made to deal with the challenges. Quite clearly, the efforts being made at information-sharing and cooperation across countries are commendable. However, a key element in the analysis shows that cheaper and more beneficial early warning systems that make use of artisanal and deep sea fishermen may not have been factored into the scheme of things. This group can be supported to report sightings at sea and support effective coordination of responses and utilisation of resources given the large area covered by the GG.
The countries along the GG need to take extra care to ensure that issues of youth unemployment, social inclusion, chieftaincy disputes and conflicts are effectively dealt with to forestall any challenges to security. This is fundamental because terrorist groups take advantage of local conditions to perpetuate their attacks and election years are excellent for fermenting trouble. This is even more worrying given the free flow of traffic within the region. There have been reported instances of key personalities and groups in Ghana linking up with their counterparts in the Niger Delta to learn how to foment trouble to demand an equal share in the benefits derived from natural resources in their communities. The situation is fast developing and the time to act is now. Source: CISA Analyst
