Introduction
Recent tensions in some parts of the world namely the Middle East has demonstrated that there is a close relationship between global security and energy markets especially amid the escalating conflict involving the U.S, Israel and Iran. The volatility of global oil markets was evident in early March 2026 when crude oil prices surged sharply, briefly nearing $120 per barrel, before retreating below $100 due to ongoing uncertainties regarding the conflict’s duration and severity. This price fluctuation shows significant concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply and shipping routes, notably through the Persian Gulf, where approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply transits. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor, has become a focal point of these concerns, as any interruption could have severe implications for the global economy (foreignpolicy.com ; goldmansachs.com ; reuters.com).
As disruptions to production facilities, pipelines, or shipping ports can immediately restrict global supply, energy researchers observe that oil markets frequently react quickly to geopolitical risk. As traders prepare for potential shortages, even the idea of danger can lead to price hikes. For instance, once the United States and Israel’s hostilities intensified, investors’ concerns that the region’s shipments may be hindered caused a sharp increase in the price of oil globally (reuters.com).
The connection between oil prices and geopolitical conflict draws attention to the more general idea of energy security, which is the capacity of nations to sustain steady and dependable access to energy supplies. Disruptions in one region can have a rapid impact on fuel prices, inflation, and global economic stability in an interconnected global economy, especially in key oil-producing regions like the Middle East. As a result, changes in the oil markets are increasingly seen as both economic and geopolitical risk and instability indicators (ecb.europa.eu ; ferrari et al., 2024).
Oil as a Determinant of Global Security
While oil prices often respond to geopolitical tensions, it must be duly recognised that oil itself actively shapes global security dynamics. Oil is a strategic resource that affects state behavior, alliance formation, and the start or escalation of hostilities rather than just a passive commodity impacted by conflict. Its centrality to modern economies and military operations makes access to oil a core national security priority for both producing and consuming countries (Schneider,2012; iea.org).
International rivalry has historically been heavily influenced by control over oil resources and supply lines. Countries rich in oil reserves often leverage energy exports for diplomatic influence, while oil-importing nations formulate foreign policies to ensure stable supply lines, which may involve military presence in resource-rich areas. The Strait of Hormuz serves as an example of how vital transit routes are included into international security considerations, resulting in military deployments to safeguard strategic chokepoints and so connecting international stability and security policy with energy protection (cfr.org ; eia.gov ; Klare, 2012).
States’ internal security is impacted by oil, and price changes have an impact on government revenue in economies that rely heavily on oil, which may result in instability and societal unrest. Rising costs can lead to inflation and public discontent in countries that import oil, raising security issues (IMF, 2024 ; irena.org).
Oil As A Strategic Global Resource & How Conflicts Influence Price
Oil remains one of the most important resources in the global economy due to its central role in energy supply, industrial production, and international trade. It is estimated that oil and gas together account for over half of global energy needs, making them critical to economic activity and development (iea.org , Salimovna, 2024).
Despite the growth of renewable energy, oil continues to hold a dominant position in the global energy mix. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil still represents close to 30% of total global energy demand, depicting its continued importance for transportation, aviation, and industrial sectors.
Oil is important for global economic stability and national security. Stable oil prices support industrial production and transportation, while volatility can hinder growth and increase inflation. Additionally, access to oil is tied to geopolitical power and security, affecting both producing and importing nations. Recent conflicts in the Middle East have caused significant disruptions, showing the world’s reliance on stable oil supply. Thus, oil remains a vital economic resource and strategic asset influencing global power and security. Its role in energy systems and vulnerability to geopolitical risks is essential for economic planning and security policy (Moghani, 2025 ; reuters.com ; tradingview.com).
Primarily, geopolitical conflicts affect oil prices through supply, transportation and market expectations.
To start with, recent fights involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to shutdowns of oil fields and reduced output across the Middle East with estimates indicating that regional production cuts have reached millions of barrels per day, greatly tightening global supply and pushing prices upward. Second, conflicts often threaten key energy transport routes, especially maritime chokepoints. About 20% of the world’s oil supply passes via the Strait of Hormuz, a route that has been hampered by the ongoing conflict. Fears of restricted worldwide access to crude oil have led to significant spikes in oil prices following disruptions or closures in this corridor. Again, even before actual shortages occur, traders respond to the risk of disruption by increasing prices due to market expectations and speculation even when supply remains stable. For instance, prices of oil rose by 20 % shortly after the start of the conflict reflecting anticipated supply constraints rather than immediate shortages. Further more, attacks on energy infrastructure, including export terminals, refineries, and pipelines, can worsen price hikes. Price surges above $100 per barrel are a result of recent strikes on Middle Eastern oil facilities and ports, which have stopped exports and decreased global supplies (reuters.com ; theguardian.com).
Managing Energy Security
The conflicts in the Middle East have exposed vulnerabilities in global energy systems highlighting the need for governments to prioritise resilient and diversified energy strategies.
First of all, in order to keep markets stable amid supply disruptions, nations rely on strategic petroleum reserves. To lessen price increases brought on by the prolonged conflict, the IEA organized the largest-ever release of oil reserves (about 400 million barrels) in March 2026. This shows how hoarding protects against supply shocks in the short run. These short-term solutions, however, need to be supplemented by long-term strategies (reuters.com ; theguardian.com).
Secondly, diversifying energy sources is key to lessening reliance on unstable areas. To reduce their exposure to geopolitical concerns, governments are to invest more in renewable energy infrastructure and alternative suppliers. One important long-term option is to invest in clean technologies and renewable energy. Increasing the use of solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources lessens reliance on fossil fuels and reduces susceptibility to fluctuations in oil prices. Renewable energy can serve as a buffer against external shocks, according to recent studies, especially in areas that heavily rely on imported fuels (greencenntralbanking.com).
To increase resilience, governments should bolster infrastructure and energy storage systems. This entails increasing fuel reserves, enhancing storage capacity, and modernizing energy systems to better manage supply interruptions (iea.org).
Finally, international cooperation and coordinated policy responses go a long way to help in managing global energy risks. Institutions should facilitate collective actions, including coordinated reserve releases and market monitoring, which will help to stabilise global energy markets during crises (iea.org ; vinuni.edu.vn).
Conclusion
Oil prices function not only as economic indicators but also as signals of geopolitical tension, reflecting developments in conflict, political instability, and risks to global energy supply chains. Fluctuations in oil markets often mirror security concerns in major producing regions and can provide early warnings of broader geopolitical instability. As global conflicts and political rivalries continue to influence energy production and transportation routes, strengthening energy security through diversification, strategic reserves, and sustainable energy investment will remain essential for protecting economies and ensuring stable access to critical resources in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
References
Ferrari Minesso, M., Lappe, M. S., & Rößler, D. (2024). Geopolitical risk and oil prices. Economic Bulletin Boxes, 8.
https://www.irena.org/Digital-Report/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2023
https://www.cfr.org/programs/energy-security-and-climate-change-program
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-the-iran-conflict-impact-oil-prices
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/oil
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025
Klare, M. (2012). The race for what’s left: the global scramble for the world’s last resources. Macmillan.
Salimovna, S. (2024). The importance of the world oil and gas industry in the economy of countries. American Journal of Economics and Business Management, 7(12), 1414-1418.
Schneider, J. D. (2012). THE QUEST: ENERGY, SECURITY, AND THE REMAKING OF THE MODERN WORLD. Energy Law Journal, 33(1), 145.
