Introduction
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is driven by a combination of strategic, historical, and geopolitical factors. Firstly, Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera, holds significant strategic value for Russia, particularly due to its geographical location and resources. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 provided Russia with critical access to the Black Sea, enhancing its naval capabilities. Additionally, Ukraine serves as a vital transit route for Russian natural gas exports to Europe, making its control economically advantageous. Historically, Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union until its independence in 1991. Eastern regions of Ukraine have substantial Russian-speaking populations, and Russia has expressed a desire to protect these communities, using their presence to justify military interventions. Geopolitically,Russia perceives Ukraine’s aspirations to join Western institutions like the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) as an existential threat to its National Security. By destabilising Ukraine, Russia aims to prevent its integration into Western alliances and maintain a buffer zone against NATO.
Like all wars, however, the conflict is not only directly impacting the lives of civilians in Ukraine and neighbouring countries. It is also having an indirect impact across the globe. One of those indirect impacts is the triggering of a significant global food crisis, exacerbating supply chain disruptions and fuelling price surges in key agricultural commodities. Given the central role of Russia and Ukraine in global food exports, particularly in wheat, maize, and sunflower oil, the conflict has had far-reaching consequences.
Ukraine and Russia’s Role in Global Food Supply
Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products. Together, they account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports, with Ukraine alone contributing 10% (FAO, 2022). They also supply 19% of global maize exports and dominate the sunflower oil market, contributing 72% of total exports (FAO, 2022). These figures illustrate their indispensable role in global food security.
With the onset of the war, Ukrainian agricultural production plummeted due to disruptions in farming activities, destruction of infrastructure, and blockades at major Black Sea ports. Russia, despite continuing its exports, faced sanctions that complicated financial transactions, restricting trade.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Price Hikes
The conflict disrupted key export routes, particularly through the Black Sea, which is crucial for Ukraine’s agricultural shipments. The initial blockade led to a dramatic reduction in exports, with grain exports falling by 30% in 2022 compared to pre-war levels (World Bank, 2023). The subsequent Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the UN and Turkey, helped alleviate shortages but remained fragile due to continued tensions.
As a result, global wheat and maize prices surged by over 30% in the months following the invasion (IMF, 2022). Sunflower oil prices also spiked, severely impacting countries dependent on imports, such as Egypt, India, and several Sub-Saharan African nations.
Fertiliser and Energy Crisis
Another major consequence of the war has been the sharp rise in fertiliser costs. Russia is the world’s leading exporter of fertilisers, supplying nearly 23% of global ammonia, 17% of potash, and 14% of urea (FAO, 2022). Sanctions and supply chain disruptions have curtailed availability, leading to increased prices. Consequently, farmers worldwide have struggled with soaring production costs, affecting future crop yields.
Additionally, the war has fuelled an energy crisis, particularly in Europe, due to disruptions in Russian natural gas supplies. Since natural gas is a critical component in fertiliser production, its price surge has further driven up fertiliser costs (IEA, 2023). The ripple effects extend to food production, making it more expensive to cultivate staple crops globally.
Impact on Food Security and Vulnerable Nations
The crisis has disproportionately affected low-income countries that rely on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine. North African nations, such as Egypt, which imports nearly 80% of its wheat from the two countries, have faced severe economic stress (WFP, 2023). Sub-Saharan Africa, already grappling with food insecurity due to climate shocks and economic downturns, has seen worsening hunger levels.
Global hunger has risen significantly, with the FAO estimating that an additional 47 million people could face acute food insecurity due to the war (FAO, 2023). The situation is further aggravated by climate-related challenges, including prolonged droughts in East Africa and extreme weather patterns affecting food production.
The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly disrupted Africa’s food security, mainly due to the continent’s heavy dependence on imports of food and fertilisers. The conflict has exacerbated vulnerabilities in supply chains, increased prices, and intensified the risk of food shortages across the region.
Dependence on Food and Fertiliser Imports
A large number of African countries rely on imports for their food and fertiliser needs, with over two-thirds having import shares exceeding 80% of domestic consumption. Notably, wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine constitute a major portion of Africa’s food supply, and disruptions in these flows have led to sharp price increases. For fertilisers, particularly potassium-based products, dependency on imports from Russia and Belarus is even higher, with West African countries facing the greatest risks. Given the limited alternative sources of these essential agricultural inputs, the crisis has severely affected agricultural productivity across the continent.
Impact on Africa’s Agricultural Systems and Food Security
The war’s impact on agriculture has been profound. Fertiliser availability and affordability have deteriorated significantly, exacerbated by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. By August 2022, data from Africa Fertiliser Watch indicated that in 11 out of 12 monitored countries, fertiliser supply was moderate or lower. In countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe, Uganda, and Mozambique, shortages reached critical levels, while prices soared by over 50% in some regions. West Africa saw fertiliser price increases ranging from 47% in Nigeria to over 200% in Ghana. Similarly, in East Africa, fertiliser prices more than doubled for essential products like di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN).
The immediate effect of the fertiliser crisis has been a reduction in usage, especially for staple crops, as farmers prioritise fertilisers for cash crops that offer better economic returns. This shift threatens food production, with East Africa projected to experience a 16% drop in cereal output (7.4 million tons), pushing an additional 7 million people into food insecurity. Given Africa’s already low fertiliser application rates and yields compared to global standards, the crisis has further worsened an already precarious situation.
Price Transmission and Market Distortions in Africa
The war has triggered sharp increases in global food and fertiliser prices, which have been transmitted, albeit unevenly, to African markets. Urea prices, for instance, tripled globally between January and December 2022, but domestic price hikes varied significantly due to government interventions. Countries like Nigeria and Senegal saw relatively moderate increases (23% and 37%, respectively), while others, such as Ghana, experienced severe deteriorations in the price ratio between crops and fertilisers, making farming increasingly unprofitable.
Similarly, food prices surged across the continent, with increases ranging from 6% to 15% in various countries between January and mid-2022. In East Africa, the cost of the local food basket rose by 22% between January and May 2022, and by 54% compared to 2021. However, price transmission was mitigated in some regions due to government policies, including subsidies, export bans, tax remissions, and price controls.
Policy Responses and Future Outlook
African governments have attempted to cushion the effects of rising prices through subsidy programs, particularly for fertilisers and staple crops. Countries like Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Ghana have implemented policies to reduce market shocks, with varying degrees of success. In some cases, subsidies have prevented complete collapses in agricultural productivity, but structural vulnerabilities persist.
The war has underscored the urgent need for Africa to enhance its food security through increased local production, diversification of import sources, and investments in agricultural resilience. Without such measures, the continent will remain highly vulnerable to external shocks, jeopardising long-term food stability.
Conclusion
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has deeply impacted Africa’s food security by disrupting supply chains, inflating costs, and worsening agricultural challenges. Countries highly dependent on food and fertiliser imports face severe risks, with millions more people at risk of hunger. While policy interventions have provided short-term relief, sustainable solutions will require structural reforms, including increased agricultural investment, improved trade policies, and regional cooperation to build a more resilient food system. The proxy impact of the war also drums home the need for Africa to aim to be food self-sufficient in terms of the production of food and agricultural implements and agrochemicals. The over-reliance on foreign powers for the continent’s food and agrochemicals poses a threat to Africa’s food security. It may not necessarily take a war for such food system disruptions to occur. A force majeur could as well be that devastating or worse. The reliance could also be used as a tool to cow Africa into submission in situations against its will and interest in situations where it doesn’t play ball within the geopolitical sphere. As the adage goes, ‘Whoever feeds you controls you.’ It is, thus, critical for Africa to shore up its agricultural output and turn the table around by becoming a net exporter of food. That way, it can develop resilience against the geopolitical shocks that may spread across the world thousands of miles away and even be a haven for the world in such turbulent times.
References
- Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2022). The Importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for Global Agricultural Markets and the Risks Associated with the Current Conflict. Available at: https://www.fao.org
- World Food Programme (WFP). (2023). The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Food Security. Available at: https://www.wfp.org
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Commodity Prices. Available at: https://www.imf.org
- World Bank. (2023). Food Security Update: The Russia-Ukraine War and its Impact on Global Food Prices. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org
- International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). Energy Market Disruptions Due to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Available at: https://www.iea.org
- Africa Fertiliser Watch. (2022). Monitoring Fertiliser Availability and Prices in Africa. Available at: https://africafertilizer.org
- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2022). Global Trade Implications of the Ukraine Crisis. Available at: https://unctad.org
- Al Jazeera. (2022). Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine? Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com
