The global spotlight was on Ghana on Tuesday, 7 January 2025, when Mr John Mahama was inaugurated as the West African country’s new president. World leaders and high-level foreign dignitaries and delegations graced the event at Ghana’s Black Star Square in the capital Accra. It was a testament to Ghana’s 32-year uninterrupted democratic journey. Notable among those present for the swearing-in ceremony were President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, who was the guest of honour, President William Ruto of Kenya, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye of Senegal, President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and former President Jacob Zuma of South Africa.
But, perhaps, the most noticeable among the heads of state was Ibrahim Traoré, the young junta leader of Ghana’s northern neighbour Burkina Faso. His fellow military leaders of Mali and Niger, Assimi Goïta and Abdourahamane Tiani, also sent top dignitaries to represent them at the investiture.
Mr Traoré, in particular, received a lot of cheers from the crowd when he, together with the Burkinabe delegation, was invited to congratulate President John Mahama after he had been sworn in. A couple of days later, Mr Mahama acknowledged the junta leader’s popularity when the two of them jointly addressed journalists. “You can also see how popular Mr President is in Ghana. When he was introduced at the Black Star Square, he got the biggest applause,” Mr Mahama said with infectious laughter which got Mr Traoré grinning.
The three countries, located in the insurgency-laden central Sahel region represent the Alliance for Sahel States (AES). They broke away from the almost 50-year-old regional bloc ECOWAS over a litany of concerns and complaints – the topmost among them being the failure of the bloc to support their fight against insurgents. Apart from all three being led by military leaders, they have also kicked France out of their territories and fostered closer ties with Russia.
After their January 29, 2025 exit date, the three countries would still have a six-month grace period for a change of mind. The exit time and grace period coincide with the first seven months of the first year of Mr John Mahama’s second and last term. Their presence at the new president’s investiture and the friendly atmosphere they enjoyed in his presence, coupled with Mr Mahama’s demeanour towards them, give Prof. Kwesi Aning, the Former Director of the Faculty of Academic Affairs & Research, Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, Ghana, some glimmer of hope for better days for ECOWAS.
Prof Aning told Accra-based Starr FM in an interview on Wednesday, 8 January 2025, a day after the investiture that Mr Mahama is “an internationalist and also a pan-Africanist but even more than that he realises that the pan-Africanist dream or the closer African relation dream will be achieved when West African leaders themselves are strong, so, you would notice a very strong presence of West African leaders [at the swearing-in ceremony in Accra] but even more importantly, our closest neighbours.”
“… For me, that is very telling,” Prof Aning observed. In his view, considering the damage done to the regional bloc in the past eight years, with Ghana’s leadership partly to blame for it, seeing Traoré and representatives of Mali and Niger at the investiture was a big win.
“We all know that in the last couple of years, Ghana’s disastrous foreign policy when we led ECOWAS that saw all kinds of coup d’états and attempted coup d’états, has actually undermined the ECOWAS integration project to the extent that three member states have decided to leave the organisation. So, having their representatives in Accra, for me, symbolises a potential opening but also a recognition that with much more informed leadership, we’ll be able to bring the ECOWAS integration project back on track as part of a larger pan-Africanist international relationship.”
In Dr Aning’s expert opinion, ECOWAS goofed in its handling of events in the three countries. “Let me be blunt: ECOWAS was a failure and a disaster in how it handled these three countries. Our own former president thought he was selling out Burkina Faso to the United States for whatever favours that he thought he needed by accusing Burkina Faso of having given gold mines to the Wagner Group. So, although Ghana had been the leader of the Accra Initiative, encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Togo, Benin and Ghana itself with Nigeria as an observer, that treacherous behaviour by Ghana undermined the whole Accra Initiative and thereby brought mistrust, suspicion and a lot of disappointment also.”
“So, having them in Accra symbolises their own willingness, first, that a new leadership in Accra will bring closer relations within the Accra Initiative but also they having to be in Accra was very symbolic,” he emphasised.
“So, Mahama being able to gather all these disparate heads of state with varying national interests opens a door” for reflection, and, “I think that reflection started in Accra yesterday [Tuesday, 7 January 2025],” he pointed out.
Prof Aning believes the AES countries have lit a revolutionary fervour that is beginning to spread across Francophone West Africa. “… ‘The revolution’ was started by the Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali) in kicking out this horrible colonial power, France, is beginning to catch fire elsewhere. Chad has kicked France out; even La Cote d’Ivoire has given them marching orders and Senegal has done the same thing.”
As a result, he said a new West Africa is emerging not just in terms of international relations but also “assertiveness” of the region’s leaders, who are saying, “We want a new role in geopolitics and become masters of our own geostrategic positions.”
For him, “That is a new interpretation of our identity and the way West African leaders want to be seen. So, what happened in Accra was not just about pomp and pageantry…”
Prof Aning further analysed that a good partnership between the presidents of Nigeria and Ghana within ECOWAS can salvage the regional bloc and heal it from the injuries sustained within the last decade.
“The last eight years, particularly when Ghana headed the ECOWAS, were probably the most disastrous ever in our history, in our foreign policy. The leadership was disastrous because we were unable to use our leadership to understand the changing dynamics in West African countries and only repeated what was found in the protocol – ‘Immediately you do this, we will suspend you.’ We applied the rules in such an uninformed manner that the three years that Ghana led ECOWAS was the period that this sub-region saw the highest number of coup d’états and attempted coups. So, part of the threat relating to ECOWAS’ possible dissolution comes from Ghana’s leadership failure when we chaired ECOWAS.”
He said what happened at the inauguration of Mr Mahama in Accra tells us that “with good leadership from the ECOWAS Commission backed by President Tinubu and President Mahama, we may yet be able to celebrate ECOWAS’ 50th anniversary in May this year with the necessary joy that we, as West Africans, have achieved but there’s a lot of hard work to be able to do that between now and May.”
In the efforts to reconcile ECOWAS with the AES, Prof Aning warns that all pro-France sentiments must be shed or risk hitting a snag.
“Senegal was given the formal mandate to try to get these three countries back but I can assure you; for Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, any country that led that charge but still had French troops stationed on their territory throwing their weight about was not going to succeed. Our [Ghana’s] previous administration was also seen as particularly close to France and then after the debacle with the United States; that is trying to sell Burkina Faso out, that trust broke down totally. So, with what Senegal has done or the indication that France must leave and John Mahama’s previous history and the type of foreign policy that he ran, I think I foresee a better chance of negotiating and trying to get the three Alliance of Sahel States back but it is going to be difficult; very difficult because we have three leaders in those countries who have decided to forge a particular path because they also felt that in their fight against, extremists, ECOWAS was not there to support them.”
He, however, believes that some talks may have already started in rebuilding ECOWAS as the bloc’s President was also in Accra for the investiture. “…I suspect that some interesting conversations and whispers will definitely have taken place,” stressing that whoever Mr Mahama appoints as foreign affairs minister also matters because “certainly one of the most critical things on his in-tray will be engaging the Accra Initiative member states and rebuilding the trust that has been lost and seeing how that can lead to the bigger ECOWAS integration project.”
Conclusion
The participation of leaders from the AES countries in President Mahama’s investiture has significant importance for regional security, trade and investment, diplomatic cooperation, Pan-Africanism and regional unity. Given the fact that the three countries have exited ECOWAS and their resolve to forge their own unity, it was significant that they participated in the investiture of a democratically elected leader. This presents opportunities for continued deliberations on cooperation and their eventual return to ECOWAS. Within the context of regional security, their presence provides opportunity for deepening security ties in the region’s fight against violent extremism. Their presence therefore signifies a thawing of their stance and opportunities for future collaboration.
