Introduction
Since their independence from colonial rule, African countries have faced political and economic challenges that often threaten their development and security (Green, 2023). Notably, West Africa, in its post-independence history, has experienced fewer conflict events and fatalities from conflict than other sub-regions on the continent. However, the turn of the millennium has witnessed a recession of large-scale and conventional conflict, ushering in new and emerging threats (Marc, Verjee & Mogaka, 2015). In recent years, the geopolitical landscape in Africa has undergone significant transformation due to increased activities of insurgent and extremist groups, as well as military coups. From 2019 to 2023, there have been 10 military coups in Western and Central Africa (Sudan – April 2019 & October 2021; Mali – August 2020 & May 2021; Chad – April 2021; Guinea – September 2021; Burkina Faso – January 2022 & September 2022; Niger – July 2023; and Gabon – August 2023). Four of these countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea) were members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) until recently when the first three turned their backs on the bloc to form a confederation. Apart from the coups, the sub-region recorded over 1,800 terrorist attacks (France 24, 2023) in the first half of 2023. This led to the deaths of hundreds of people, with Burkina Faso recording the highest death toll of 2,725 people, Mali – 844 deaths, and Niger and Nigeria recording 77 and 70 deaths, respectively. This has resulted in an alarming rise in security contagion, a phenomenon where instability and conflict spread across borders, which CISA analysts framed through the lens of system theory in the June Edition.
On the flipside, Africa has been a battlefield for superpowers seeking to gain control over the continent’s resources for centuries. Containing abundant minerals, oil, gas, and fertile soil, Africa’s wealth has always been sought after by world superpowers seeking to expand their spheres of influence (Rodney, 1972; Nkrumah, 1965). This rivalry dates back to the periods when colonies were formed, up to now, proving how real this competition remains with current examples including France and Russia’s rivalry within Africa (France24 2024). This struggle is further complicated by the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a coalition of military-led governments in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, all of which were formerly French colonies. The AES has severed ties with France, ECOWAS, and the West, aligning instead with Russia, primarily through the Wagner Group, to fight insurgencies in the region (Al Jazeera, 2024; Karr, 2024). This shift has profound implications for regional cooperation, norms of sovereignty, and the future of security in Africa. This article explores the underlying factors driving these changes, focusing on how weakened regional cooperation, emboldened states, and Russian influence are exacerbating security risks in the region.
Military Coups and the Breakaway from France and the United States
The military interventions in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso mark a significant moment in the transnational outlook of West Africa, specifically regarding close relationships with France, their former colonial master, as well as the United States (Yabi, 2023). Since the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have had strong associations with France (Parker, & Rathbone, 2007), which has maintained a strong presence in the region through military bases and economic ties even after their colonies gained independence. Additionally, the United States, which was competing with the Soviet Union for the acceptance of their ideology (liberalism) by newly independent countries in the 1950s and 1970s, has also been a key developmental partner on the continent (Fukuyama, 2012). As part of broader counter-terrorism efforts in the sub-region, they have provided military assistance and training to these countries battling insurgent groups. However, the military coups that occurred in these three states significantly altered their previous bonds, leading to an unprecedented realignment of alliances and a new security environment within the sub-region.
From March 2020 to July 2023, there have been a total of five military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The military overthrow of civilian governments in these countries was due to internal security policy failures and general dissatisfaction with governance. In each country, the military justified their actions by arguing that the governments failed to address the growth of insurgent groups. The international community, including France and the United States, strongly condemned the coups and requested an immediate return to civilian rule. Nonetheless, the new military governments considered their takeovers an inevitable measure to achieve stability and safety within their countries. These acts of defiance were further demonstrated when they later decided to cut ties with France, which involved expelling French soldiers from Mali while withdrawing from defence agreements that had lasted for many years. While the US was not as badly affected, there was still a significant shift towards less Western influence as these junta leaders sought new directions.
The Role of ECOWAS and the Formation of the Alliance of Sahel States
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has long played a crucial role in promoting regional stability and security in West Africa since its formation in 1975. The organisation has been instrumental in mediating conflicts, supporting democratic governance, and coordinating collective responses to security threats. In the wake of the coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, ECOWAS quickly condemned the military takeovers and imposed sanctions on the new regimes. The regional body also threatened military intervention to restore civilian rule, particularly in Niger, where the coup was the most recent and occurred under significant international scrutiny.
On September 16, 2023, the military juntas of these three countries initiated the procedure for the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States in response to the ECOWAS threat. On July 6, 2024, the alliance was formally established with an anti-France and anti-ECOWAS posture. The Alliance of Sahel States seeks to protect its members from any violation of sovereignty, territorial integrity, or freedom from neo-colonial intervention, in addition to countering the threats posed by ECOWAS.
Russia’s Influence as a Security Partner
The political and economic attention Russia is gaining in the Sahel reflects its broader strategy to grow its influence around the globe through alliances with countries that feel let down by the West. In this regard, the AES has seen Russia as the only security ally it needs, primarily through its employment of the Wagner Group. Its activities in the Sahel fall within a larger context where Russia and the West are engaged in a hegemonic struggle. Therefore, hosting the AES aims not only to afford Russia an edge over the African continent but also to gain access to what has essentially been reserved for France in the region. Nonetheless, an increased Russian influence in the Sahel is not without risks. The Wagner Group has been accused of human rights violations, and its operations are quite opaque, raising questions of accountability and, down the line, the consequences of a Russian presence in the region.
Deterioration of Regional Cooperation, Selective Alliances, and Security Dynamics
The AES-Russia alliance is just one example of the incremental, selective alliances that are emerging across Africa’s security landscape. Most of these alliances are based on pragmatic considerations, as states struggle to maximize their security and economic interests against the backdrop of a changing global environment. The creation of AES, in alliance with Russia, marks a major turning point within West Africa’s political landscape. These Sahelian territories have traditionally worked together within the boundaries of ECOWAS since its formation in Lagos in 1975. However, as a result of the coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, and in response to international and regional reactions against them, these countries have distanced themselves from their long-term partners under the ECOWAS umbrella.
Frustrated by the ineffectiveness of Western-backed initiatives in the fight against insurgent groups, they turned to Russia as an alternative security partner. The weakened regional cooperation further isolates ECOWAS and deepens the divide between the AES countries and the West, which has sanctioned AES nations, further isolating them. The decline in regional collaboration significantly impacts West Africa’s overall security framework, creating gaps that insurgent groups can easily exploit. The AES’s cooperation with Russia is creating fresh divisions throughout West Africa, forcing countries to navigate the discordant interests of global superpowers carefully.
By aligning with Russia, the AES countries are further isolating themselves from their traditional allies in ECOWAS and the West, which could have long-term consequences for their economic and political stability. Aligning with Russia, which is also under sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, risks further alienating AES nations from the international community, potentially worsening their economic and political stability. Moreover, these alliances are often based on short-term security needs rather than long-term strategic considerations, which could lead to unintended consequences down the line.
Norms of Sovereignty Under Siege
The realignment of the AES toward Russia and its withdrawal from ECOWAS reflects a broader challenge to the principles of sovereignty and non-interference that have guided international relations in Africa until now. This redefinition of sovereignty is not limited to the Sahel; rather, it is an emerging pattern across Africa, where states are challenging conventional norms of sovereignty, particularly in terms of security and counterterrorism. Partly, this shift is driven by the inability of current international and regional mechanisms to respond effectively to the complex security challenges most African states face.
To address this dilemma, governments have responded by forming new alliances, particularly with Russia, which offers them a degree of independence in managing their security affairs. The dangerous implication of this shift is that in challenging the norms of sovereignty, the AES and similar entities risk undermining the principles of non-interference and territorial integrity that have formed the foundation of African international relations since the end of colonialism. Regional stability may further erode if states become willing to intervene in the affairs of their neighbours, either directly or through proxies like the Wagner Group.
The Future of Security Contagion in the AES
The alliance between the AES and Russia, coupled with their breakaway from ECOWAS, represents a significant shift in the security dynamics of West Africa. This could be a slippery slope, as other West African countries might find the AES model appealing for establishing alternative security partnerships outside the traditional Western framework. This trend could lead to a further spread of instability across regional cooperation in West Africa, as countries might prioritise their individual interests over collective action. In such an environment, where alliances frequently shift, the threats to norms of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference could become more pronounced. This situation might also deepen the AES’s alignment with Russia, which could have broader implications for global security. As Russia continues to expand its influence across Africa, it could use its involvement in the Sahel as a springboard to project power into other regions of interest, such as the Middle East, thereby opening new fault lines of conflict and rivalry with the West.
Conclusion
The closer relationship between the AES and Russia reflects the broader competition between nations for power and influence in Africa. This competition, driven by Africa’s rich resources and strategic importance, is fostering new partnerships and challenging traditional notions of sovereignty. As AES countries distance themselves from their traditional allies and forge new connections with Russia, the risk of spreading instability increases, potentially destabilizing the entire region.
The future security of the Sahel and West Africa will largely depend on how these changes unfold. If the AES approach gains traction, it could weaken regional cooperation and undermine the rules that have historically governed international relations in Africa. This could provide external powers like Russia with more opportunities to expand their influence, potentially at the expense of regional stability and security.
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