Introduction
Russia’s engagement in Africa has evolved over the past decade, marked by strategic military, economic, and diplomatic initiatives aimed at expanding its influence across the continent. During the Soviet era, Russia established strong ties with various African nations, supporting liberation movements and fostering ideological alliances. These relationships waned after the Soviet Union’s collapse but have been revitalised in recent years as Russia seeks to reassert its global presence. Following its annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia intensified its focus on Africa, leveraging historical connections and positioning itself as an alternative to Western partners. This strategy has involved a combination of military assistance, economic investments, and diplomatic efforts.
Military Involvement and Security Assistance
A cornerstone of Russia’s strategy has been the deployment of private military companies (PMCs), notably the Wagner Group, to provide security assistance to African governments. In exchange, Russia has secured access to valuable natural resources and strategic military bases. For instance, in the Central African Republic, Wagner operatives have offered military support and training, gaining rights to gold and diamond mines. Similar engagements have occurred in Sudan, Libya, Mali, and Mozambique. In 2024, following internal restructuring, Wagner’s African operations were integrated into the newly formed “Africa Corps” under direct Russian Ministry of Defense control (en.wikipedia.org).
Economic Investments and Resource Extraction
Russia’s economic footprint in Africa is evident through its investments in the mining and energy sectors. By securing mining contracts and other economic agreements, Russia has bolstered its economic ties with African nations, often in exchange for military and political support. This approach has been particularly prominent in resource-rich countries where Russian entities have gained significant concessions (lemonde.fr)
Diplomatic Efforts and Soft Power
Diplomatically, Russia has worked to strengthen bilateral relations with African countries, often emphasising anti-colonial rhetoric and positioning itself as a partner in development. The Russia-Africa Summit held in St. Petersburg in 2023 exemplifies this effort, serving as a platform to discuss cooperation and showcase Russia’s commitment to African development (lemonde.fr).
Recent Developments
In recent months, Russia has continued to expand its influence. Notably, around 200 military instructors were deployed to Equatorial Guinea to support the presidential guard, reflecting Russia’s ongoing strategy of providing security assistance in exchange for strategic alliances (Reuters.com)
However, Russia’s growing influence in Africa has been increasingly linked to the erosion of democratic institutions, the rise of authoritarianism, and deepening corruption. This trend, facilitated by Moscow’s strategic partnerships with African leaders who prioritise personal gain over national interests, poses significant challenges to governance, stability, and economic development on the continent.
A Legacy of Soviet-Era Influence
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union sought to establish alliances with newly independent African nations, providing military and economic assistance to socialist and non-aligned governments. These efforts included support for communist political movements and military interventions in conflicts such as those in Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Soviet Union also built close ties with South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), a relationship that persists today.
Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Russia’s presence in Africa diminished, only to resurge in recent years with a new approach that combines diplomacy with the deployment of private military companies (PMCs), most notably the Wagner Group. These groups offer the Kremlin flexibility and plausible deniability, allowing Russia to exert influence and dictate narratives through disinformation campaigns, without direct state involvement (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
Russia’s Role in Democratic Backsliding in Africa
Russia actively undermines democracy in Africa through disinformation campaigns, electoral interference, and support for unconstitutional power grabs. According to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, Russian interference has been documented in at least 28 African countries, with 22 targeted by disinformation campaigns, 18 experiencing electoral meddling, and 15 witnessing support for unconstitutional power transitions. These interventions are often aimed at propping up Moscow-friendly regimes, extending authoritarian rule, and legitimising coups.
The pattern is clear: Russia predominantly targets nations with weak democratic institutions. The median Freedom House score of African countries where Russia is most active is 22 out of 100, significantly lower than the median score of 43 for nations not experiencing Russian interference. Furthermore, 13 of the 28 African countries affected by Russian influence are engaged in conflict, highlighting Moscow’s role in prolonging instability by obstructing mediated political solutions (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
Case Studies of Russian State Capture
Central African Republic (CAR)
In CAR, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra secured Russian military support in exchange for access to valuable diamond and gold mines. The Wagner Group, comprising approximately 2,000 mercenaries, has not focused on stabilising the country as purported but rather on protecting these resources and ensuring Touadéra remains in power. Wagner’s influence has led to election manipulation, suppression of opposition figures, and widespread human rights abuses. The UN peacekeeping mission in CAR has faced hostility from Wagner forces, and government officials who question Russia’s role risk dismissal or persecution. Meanwhile, citizens suffer from insecurity, corruption, and declining civil liberties (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
Sudan
Russia has provided crucial political and military support to Sudan’s ruling junta, led by Lt. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who seized power in a coup and disrupted the country’s democratic transition. Wagner operatives have reportedly encouraged the Sudanese military to violently suppress pro-democracy protests, leading to hundreds of deaths since 2019. Additionally, Russia has forged strong ties with Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), a key junta figure, facilitating gold trafficking operations that fund both Wagner and the Sudanese regime. In return, Russia secured a 25-year lease for naval port access in Port Sudan, strengthening its strategic foothold on the Red Sea. This arrangement isolates Sudan from crucial international aid and economic recovery programs, exacerbating its financial crisis (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
AES countries
In Mali, Russian disinformation played a key role in stoking anti-government protests that led to the 2020 coup against President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. The military junta that seized power now relies on Wagner forces, who receive $11 million per month for their services. Russian-backed state media dominate the country’s information space, while international news outlets critical of Moscow have been banned. Mali’s junta has also severed ties with France and the European Union, expelling 5,000 troops who were combating jihadist insurgents. This shift has only emboldened Islamist militants, leading to a worsening security crisis. As in CAR, Wagner operatives and Malian forces have been implicated in severe human rights abuses and the suppression of political opposition (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
Just like in Mali – Niger and Burkina Faso have also severed ties with France, the EU and the West. They have gravitated towards Russia and forged strong ties with the Kremlin. The three countries have even formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) – the nucleus of an envisaged confederacy. All three AES countries are led by juntas who toppled democratically elected governments.
In these countries, Russia has secured access to valuable mining assets. This expansion is often facilitated through agreements where Russia provides military assistance to ruling juntas in exchange for mining rights. In Mali, Russian entities have gained control over several gold mining operations. The Kremlin’s involvement in gold extraction serves as a means to circumvent Western sanctions and finance its activities, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. (Washington Institute). Niger, which possesses substantial uranium deposits, has invited Russian investment in its mining sector. This move aligns with Russia’s strategy to strengthen its position in the global nuclear energy market by securing critical uranium supplies (ICWA).
Russia’s approach in the Sahel involves offering military support to regimes in exchange for access to natural resources. This strategy not only enhances Russia’s economic interests but also extends its geopolitical influence in the region (Washington Institute).
While Russia has made significant inroads, other nations, notably China, are also expanding their influence in the Sahel’s mining sector, leading to a complex geopolitical landscape (Le Monde).
Proclivity toward corruption
Russia’s deepening entrenchment in African governance structures has dire consequences for democratic accountability, national sovereignty, and economic stability. Leaders enticed by Russian backing often sidestep democratic norms, undermining institutions that could hold them accountable. Countries most vulnerable to Russian influence tend to have high levels of corruption, as evidenced by their ranking in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
South Africa serves as a cautionary example of how even relatively strong democratic institutions can be targeted. Former President Jacob Zuma’s 2014 nuclear power deal with Russia, estimated at $76 billion, was widely seen as an attempt to enrich political elites at the public’s expense. Although the deal was later scrapped, Russian disinformation campaigns continue to sow division within the ruling ANC, highlighting the persistent threat of Moscow’s influence (Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, 2023).
Conclusion
Russia’s expanding presence in Africa is accelerating democratic erosion, empowering autocrats, and deepening corruption. By propping up authoritarian regimes, prolonging conflicts, and exploiting natural resources, Moscow is entrenching instability and obstructing the aspirations of African citizens for democratic governance and economic development. As Russia seeks to counteract its international isolation following the invasion of Ukraine, its engagement in Africa is likely to intensify, further imperilling the continent’s democratic trajectory.
Efforts to counter this influence require stronger international partnerships to promote transparency, good governance, and the rule of law in African nations. Without such measures, Russian-backed autocrats will continue to prioritise personal and geopolitical gains at the expense of their people’s fundamental rights and freedoms.
While wishing to counter any negative influence of Russia in Africa, it must be noted that countries all over the world are interested in pursuing relationships and partnerships that advance their national interest. Africa needs to ensure a respectable balance and look more inward, using mechanisms such as the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to foster closer cooperation and greater independence.
For Africa’s democratic future, the long-term challenge will be how to balance relationships with external powers, particularly Russia. It must be noted though, that its activities in Africa are not governed by benevolence but its national interest. Africa must focus on building indigenous democratic systems that are transparent, accountable, Afrocentric and responsive to the needs of the population. A focus on only authoritarianism and its emphasis on state sovereignty over democratic values could have negative consequences on prospects for democracy in Africa.
References:
Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. (2023). Russian influence in Africa: A threat to democracy and stability. Retrieved from https://africacenter.org
Freedom House. (2023). Freedom in the World 2023: Democracy under siege. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org
Le Monde. (2024, August 21). Moscow’s winning return to Africa. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr/en
Le Monde. (2024, August 21). Africa, the new frontline between the West and Russia. Retrieved from https://www.lemonde.fr/en
Reuters. (2024, November 12). Russian power creeps across West Africa with Equatorial Guinea mission. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com
Wikipedia. (n.d.). Wagner Group activities in Africa. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org
Transparency International. (2023). Corruption Perceptions Index 2023. Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org
