Introduction
Ghana is set to go for elections once again in December 2024. The stakes are particularly high with the two leading political parties[1] lacing their boots for an intense fight to determine which of them would be given the chance to lead the nation after January 7th, 2025. Of critical importance are the factors that would support not only voter participation but voter choices.
For those Ghanaians who are over 50 years, and lived in Ghana during the years Jerry Rawlings was leader of the AFRC[2], and then the PNDC and later President of Ghana, voting for a leader is a key expression of freedom of choice. From 1981 to 1992 Rawlings ruled the country and provided leadership without giving Ghanaians a choice as to whom they wanted as their president. Following the end of his democratic tenure (1993 to 2001), Ghana has had John Agyekum Kufuor, John Evans Atta-Mills, John Mahama and Nana Akufo-Addo respectively. While Ghanaians had issues with the leadership of each of these presidents, there is one fundamental underlying issue – these leaders were chosen freely by the will of the people through the ballot box. The time has come again to make a choice, and Ghanaians are waiting to respond to that call on the 7th of December 2024. This short article outlines the key issues that are likely to shape voter choices and preferences.
Importance or Otherwise of Voting
Voting is important in every democracy because it is recognized as a fundamental human right. The right to choose freely is upheld in every society whose constitution recognizes freedom as critical to human survival. Additionally, it provides opportunity for accountability, although the actions of some elected officials give cause for concern. However, generally speaking, elected officials are more likely to be responsive to and interact with constituents who vote them into power than those who impose their will on the people through the barrel of the gun. Furthermore, voting has been found to be foundational in development, providing opportunity for divergent views to be integrated where necessary and scrutinised to achieve the general good.
In Ghana however, there have been so many reports of abuse of power by elected officials, including sudden changes in wealth status and living standards. Voting has been bitter and divisive in some communities and those perceived not to have voted for a particular official or party have been punished for their choice. Such actions have undermined communal and national cohesion, entrenched ethnic tensions and disaffection and in some instances led to bloody disputes.
The above notwithstanding, voting is a fundamental tool for regime entrenchment or change where necessary. It is also a key civic function which all citizens 18 years and above are expected to participate in. What therefore would drive their choices going forward?
Issues Which May Influence Voter Choices.
Energy – Ghana has had challenges with electricity production and distribution in the past. In the years 2007 and 2008, it was the main deciding factor in the loss of the NPP in the elections. The situation was so prevalent that it gained the name ‘dumsor’ which means to put off and put on. Power was erratic and many companies suffered as a result of this. The timetable for power rationing meant that some organisations had to work in the night as that was when they had access to electricity. Dumsor is therefore a sore issue in the lives of Ghanaians. In 2015, it reared its ugly head again and continued consistently, affecting Ghanaian businesses. It was no wonder that the NDC lost the elections of 2016. There have been calls to provide a timetable for the erratic power supply Ghanaians are experiencing lately. Businesses claim there has been a substantial increase of 79% in electricity tariffs alone. If electricity costs accounts for approximately 30% of production expenses for firms, then there would be less tax to pay at the end of the day. Any increase in electricity rates, alongside utility costs in general, would without doubt lead to increased production expenditure. It is a key issue which would be the deciding factor if not checked. While the challenges could be explained away, electricity is one utility that touches the lives of all Ghanaians and without that in regular and consistent supply, people would think of themselves first.
Taxation, Interest Rates and Cost of Doing Business – In Ghana, business leaders drive decisions across many sectors of the economy. Ghana’s economy is heavily tilted towards imports and in recent times, there have been general concerns about the high cost of doing business in Ghana. Interest rates have been asserted to be among the highest in the region and globally, largely driven by the Monetary Policy Rate[3](MPR) being set at 29%, leading to rates reaching approximately 35% by commercial banks. Additionally, businesses complain that taxes are overwhelmingly burdensome, making compliance difficult. Among the taxes deemed burdensome is the Value Added Tax (VAT), which businesses find excessively high at 22%. The contribution to the composition of the VAT, including levies for the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), the Ghana Education Trust Fund (GETFUND), and Covid-19[4] recovery levy all makes taxation high for businesses. The impact of these taxes are not felt by the businesses but eventually by the ordinary Ghanaian as they are those who would eventually pay the bill. Businesses would pass on the cost and this would determine how Ghanaians vote at the end of the day, unless cogent explanation is provided, linked to results and outcomes from the use to which taxes are put.
The Debt Exchange Programme – Ghana’s debt exchange programme, occasioned by high debt was necessitated by the country’s inability to pay off its debt obligations. Consequently, it entered into a debt exchange programme and gave bonds of longer tenor for those that were due or close to maturity. Following a particularly difficult period of negotiations, some agreements were reached, pushing back the payments to begin from 2027 and 2028 all the way till 2032. Naturally, this has created disaffection for the government of the day, as bondholders who are retired have picketed several times to be paid. The repercussions continue to be felt with occasional lapses and references to a difficult economic situation stemming from this. Critics of the Debt Exchange programme allege that architect of the exchange programme[5] would not be in office at the time the bonds are due to be redeemed and that it was a clever way to pass on the burden to a successor or succeeding government.
Education – Ghana’s secondary education sector has seen a boost in numbers, following the implementation of the free senior high school policy. Though generally praised, it has left in its wake many challenges for teachers and others within the secondary education chain. Classes have become larger than usual; fees have been scrapped and the implementation has shown critical deficits in education infrastructure. For instance, there have been complaints about poor food quality, overcrowded classrooms, more work for teachers and a reduction in the overall quality of education. To deal with some of these issues, the government introduced what it called a double track system. Critics have supported the view that it is burdensome to teachers and unduly affects the educational calendar, thereby undermining planning by schools and teachers. Notifications on vacations and reporting times are very short, and the decision as to when they are applied is not based on consensus. The beneficiaries of the system would vote according to how beneficial the programme has been to them as parents, students, teachers or interest groups. However, it is clear that anyone advocating a reversal of this policy is unlikely to win the sympathy of voters[6].
Business Support – Small businesses have cried out against being crowded out by government borrowing. Businesses want financial incentives and soft loans to tide them over difficult times. It is clear that financial support in the form of loans go a long way to improve business performance for many small-scale businesses. How business support and incentive programmes have been implemented would shape the thinking of small business owners and their employees.
The view of Industry Associations– Industry Associations have significant sway over the way their members think about issues of national governance. The Ghana Union of Traders Association (GUTA) for instance is a powerful voice for trading and trade associations, small and large scale importers and consistently speaks about matters that affect this category of people. Their numbers are large, about six million in total.
Foreign Exchange Rates – The rate of exchange of the cedi to the major foreign currencies continues to be a big issue in the country. Principally because Ghana’s economy is heavily import driven, any changes in the price of goods internationally affects prices locally. So fuel in particular keeps changing in price. This affects the price of goods and services locally, and once transport fares increase, every other service or goods depending on transportation is impacted. The trading associations are particularly affected by changes in forex rates and efforts to stem the rising rates are likely to impact their decisions.
Infrastructure – The quality of infrastructure, particularly roads is one that is increasingly guiding voter patterns and choices. Media focus is likely to be on schools, hospitals, children studying under trees, bad roads and poor maintenance of facilities as key factors for consideration to guide decision making.
The collapse of banks & micro finance institutions[7] – Although the banking sector cleanup was done in 2019, the effects are still being felt by the many citizens who lost their jobs.
There has been criticism of how it was handled and whether the management of these banks could not have been changed to protect the sector. Indeed, millions were poured into paying depositors, which could have been injected to resuscitate them. Those most affected, their dependents and close family members are likely to consider the outcome of the clean up in their lives as they cast their votes.
Media Reportage – Ghana’s media landscape like many segments of society and the economy is partisan, with a few focusing on being in the middle. What the media organisations say about issues of national importance during this period are likely to shape the thinking of the listening public on how to vote. Currently, the spotlight has been placed on a number of issues and these are setting the agenda for discussion and shaping views. The war for the minds of Ghanaians would continue on many radio and TV stations, particularly the local language ones which have very wide listenership.
Conclusion
The stakes are high in the upcoming elections. The tipping edges are many and the dangers lurking around the corner to snuff the peace Ghana enjoys are myriad and close to home. How the political parties conduct their electioneering campaigns, and the emphasis or spins they put on issues would determine the desired outcomes for them. There is no doubt that the role of the Electoral Commission as an impartial arbiter is on the line. Many things have been said that give cause for worry. More importantly, there is a warning out there that artificial intelligence exists to create misinformation and disaffection. This is the critical issue to watch out for and ensure such mischief is not only effectively dealt with but swiftly as well. It is important to remember that Ghana’s youth will play a significant role in the elections this year. Ghana’s youthful population of close to 40% would be the deciding factor. What is proposed to them that is appealing, reasonable and feasible would guide their choices. They are a mix of highly skilled and unskilled, educated, energetic, socially active and digitally aware. What shapes their thinking and choices would be what political scientists ought to look out for as some of the key determinants for voter choices. Finally, voting is about numbers and the way to reach significant numbers is to engage with the industry associations and let them know what their benefits would be.
[1] Ghana has been ruled by two political parties since the fourth republic. The National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). These two parties have controlled parliament, appointed judges and key public service officers in the country. Whichever party wins will have the opportunity to appoint several members of Board, Councils, Chief Executives of Public Corporations and Enterprises as well as District Chief Executives across the 16 regions. Winning is therefore a key outcome for either party and its members.
[2] The Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC) came into power through a military coup. It is remembered for executions and curfews as well as brutalities of citizens. The Peoples National Defence Council (PNDC) also came into office through a coup, led by the same man Jerry Rawlings. This period lasted from 1981 until 1992 when Rawlings became a democratically elected leader.
[3] The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is the rate at which the Bank of Ghana lends to the commercial banks for lending to their customers. The higher it is, the higher the rate at which the banks would lend to customers.
[4] Covid 19 levy was instituted at the height of the covid pandemic. Unfortunately, even though covid has ended, the levy continues to be charged, which annoys many taxpayers who see this as burdensome and unnecessary.
[5] The key lead in negotiating the debt exchange programme and IMF support programme is no longer Minister of Finance and has left to his successor, the challenge of implementing the negotiated agreement which still has challenges (such as VAT on electricity) which Ghanaians abhor.
[6] The free SHS is an entire industry on its own, with suppliers of uniforms, food and other logistics growing as a result of its implementation. It is noteworthy that to review it would need to be a colossal task that ensures consideration for all micro segments of the policy.
[7] The bank of Ghana revoked the licences of 347 microfinance firms in 2019 closing nearly three-quarters of the industry. A member of Parliament intimated that about 17,350 people lost their jobs in the closure of microfinance companies (see https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/17-350-have-lost-their-jobs-after-the-closure-of-347-microfinance-institutions-Minority-778063)
