The first quarter of 2025 has exposed the deepening complexity of terrorism and violent extremism across Africa. Data from the African Union Counter Terrorism Centre’s Quarterly Africa Terrorism Bulletin paints a grim picture: between January and March 2025, 943 terrorist attacks resulted in 4,296 deaths across the continent. Although this reflects an 8% drop in the number of attacks compared to the previous quarter, the 35% increase in fatalities underlines the growing lethality of terrorist operations. This reality reveals both the adaptability of terrorist groups and the ongoing challenges in counter-terrorism (CT) efforts on the continent.
The Regional Epicentres of Violence
Terrorism remains unevenly distributed across Africa, with certain regions bearing the brunt of the violence. West Africa accounted for 46% of attacks and an alarming 56% of the deaths, making it the deadliest region in this period. East Africa followed with 28% of attacks and 26% of deaths, while Central Africa registered 21% of attacks and 16% of fatalities. Southern and Northern Africa experienced significantly fewer incidents, reflecting both geographic disparities and differences in group operational capabilities.
Notably, the Sahel and Horn of Africa regions continue to serve as epicentres of extremist violence. The Sahel alone was responsible for 38% of attacks and 43% of deaths, with groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) maintaining momentum. The Horn of Africa—particularly Somalia—accounted for 26% of both attacks and deaths, with Al-Shabaab and Islamic State Somalia (ISS) remaining potent threats.
Targeted Violence and Increasing Sophistication
Military and security forces remained the primary targets, enduring 587 of the 943 attacks recorded. Civilian populations were targeted in 335 incidents, while international organisations and governmental institutions saw limited but symbolic attacks. Small arms and light weapons (SALWs) were used in 67% of attacks, while improvised explosive devices (IEDs) accounted for 27%. Kidnappings—often for ransom or political leverage—represented 4% of incidents, with 677 hostages taken, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Cameroon, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, and Niger.
Terrorist groups are not only intensifying their tactics but also incorporating technology into their arsenals. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, for surveillance, combat, and propaganda by groups like ISS, JNIM, ISWAP, and Boko Haram marks a dangerous evolution in African terrorism.
High-Profile Attacks Highlight Growing Threat
Several high-profile attacks in Q1 2025 underscore the continued threat to security and stability:
• On 12 January, ISWAP militants killed at least 40 civilians in Tundun Leda, Borno, Nigeria.
• On 15 January, ISCAP massacred 45 civilians in Makoko, North Kivu, DRC.
• On 10 February, ISS attacked Puntland forces in Somalia using a vehicle-borne IED, killing 27 soldiers and injuring 40.
• On 28 March, JNIM launched a devastating assault on a Burkinabe army camp in Diapaga, Burkina Faso, killing at least 90 soldiers and Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDPs).
These incidents, among others, reflect the increasingly brazen and coordinated nature of terrorist operations, as well as the vulnerability of both military and civilian targets.
Regional Counter-Terrorism Responses: Gains and Gaps
Despite the mounting challenges, African states and regional mechanisms have intensified counter-terrorism efforts, often in collaboration with international partners.
Horn of Africa
Somalia’s national forces, backed by the African Union Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), have conducted numerous successful operations. A significant milestone occurred on 5 March, when Ethiopian forces launched their first airstrikes in Somalia in nearly two decades, killing senior Al-Shabaab leaders, including commander Yusuf Dhegnaas. In Puntland, local forces killed over 90 ISS militants and eliminated a senior foreign commander responsible for drone operations.
Sahel
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—operating within the framework of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—have executed joint operations with considerable success. On 15 March, a joint aerial assault in Kiral, Tillaberi neutralised 45 ISGS militants. Earlier, on 15 February, Burkinabe forces killed 22 JNIM militants in Tapoa. However, these groups continue to adapt and threaten neighbouring coastal states like Benin and Ghana.
Lake Chad Basin
The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), involving Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger, carried out operations that further degraded Boko Haram and ISWAP. Nonetheless, the force continues to struggle with financial and logistical limitations, underscoring the need for greater investment and regional support.
Great Lakes Region
Counter-terrorism efforts in eastern DRC were undermined by the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) decision to end the SAMIDRC mission. The ADF/ISCAP group remains active, with a high civilian death toll.
North and Southern Africa
North African states, including Algeria and Tunisia, have succeeded in dislodging terrorist cells. Algeria’s military killed an AQIM militant and seized weapons in Medea province. In Mozambique, Southern African forces disrupted several planned attacks by Al-Sunna wa Jama’a (ASWJ), although sporadic violence persists.
Recommendations and the Way Forward
The Bulletin concludes with an urgent call for strategic reforms. These include:
1. Continental Harmonisation: A unified counter-terrorism and violent extremism framework at the African Union level is vital. Coordinated efforts among RECs, RMs, and international partners would reduce redundancy and maximise resource efficiency.
2. Security Sector Reform (SSR): To build trust and legitimacy, reforms must prioritize human security over regime security. Oversight, accountability, and human rights compliance are essential to avoid exacerbating local grievances that fuel extremism.
3. Technological Adaptation: The increasing use of drones by terrorists necessitates the development and deployment of counter-drone systems across member states. Public awareness campaigns and regional coordination will be key to mitigating this growing transnational threat.
4. Intelligence Enhancement: Intelligence failure remains a significant vulnerability. Strengthening surveillance, early warning systems, and inter-agency cooperation could reduce both the frequency and lethality of attacks.
Conclusion
While deliberate counter-terrorism operations have made notable gains—killing over 3,300 terrorists in Q1 2025 alone—the rising lethality and sophistication of terrorist attacks show that the threat is far from neutralised. Coordinated regional strategies, technological innovation, human-centric security approaches, and sustained political commitment are essential if Africa is to reverse the tide of violent extremism and restore stability across its most vulnerable regions.
Reference:
African Union Counter Terrorism Centre (AUCTC). (2025). Quarterly Africa Terrorism Bulletin – First Quarter 2025 (1st January to 31st March 2025). African Union Commission, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
