Afrobarometer’s African Insights 2024, released in July this year, warns that the continent’s “democratic project faces challenging times”. In its executive summary, the report, titled: ‘Democracy at risk – the people’s perspective,’ explained: “Since 2020, soldiers have pushed out elected governments in six countries. Three presidents have defied constitutional limits to claim third terms in office. Other leaders use subtler means to erode democracy, weakening checks on their authority and harassing the political opposition. Non-compliance by member states frustrates the African Union’s progress in enforcing democratic norms.”
These setbacks, the report noted, “overshadow successful elections, ruling-party transitions, the ouster of long-sitting presidents, the strong showing of the judiciary in electoral disputes, and other – very real – democratic advances, and fuel dire warnings from stakeholders that democracy is losing ground on the continent.”
Afrobarometer, a nonprofit corporation headquartered in Accra, Ghana, is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that has documented the democratic aspirations and experiences of African citizens for the past 25 years. This latest report, which it calls “the first in what will be an annual series on high-priority topics, distills findings from data spanning more than a decade, including the latest round of nationally representative surveys in 39 countries, representing the views of more than three-fourths of the continent’s population.”
In a nutshell, the report pointed out that Africans want more democratic governance than they are getting, and the evidence suggests that nurturing support for democracy will require strengthening integrity in local government and official accountability.
Key Findings
Support For Democracy
On average, the report found that support for democracy remains robust across 39 countries. Two-thirds (66%) of Africans say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and large majorities reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%). But across 30 countries surveyed consistently over the past decade, the report notes that support for democracy has declined by 7 percentage points, including 29 points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali. It highlights that opposition to military rule has weakened by 11 points across 30 countries, most dramatically in Mali and Burkina Faso (by 40 and 37 points, respectively). Also, it says more than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders “abuse power for their own ends.”
Additionally, the report mentions that the call by growing majorities for government accountability and the rule of law, and support for other democratic norms has held “steady” over the past decade, including presidential accountability to Parliament, multiparty competition, presidential term limits, and media freedom. However, support for elections has dropped by 8 percentage points across 30 countries, though a large majority still consider it the best method for choosing their leaders.
Supply Of Democracy
Fewer than half (45%) of Africans, the report computed, “think their countries are mostly or completely democratic; and only 37% say they are satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries.” Across 30 countries, both indicators show declines – of 8 and 11 percentage points, respectively – over the past decade. “Satisfaction with democracy has dropped precipitously in some of Africa’s most high-profile democracies, including Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), and South Africa (-35 points). Other indicators of democratic supply also show at least modest declines, including citizen assessments of the quality of elections and their president’s accountability to Parliament and the courts.”
Drivers Of Democratic Attitudes
The report acknowledges that deepening citizen dissatisfaction with how democracy is performing is strongly associated with perceived declines in both socioeconomic and political performance but points out that support for democracy as a system of government is more resilient to economic and social deficiencies. “Where we see declines in support for democracy, they are most closely linked to adverse changes in political performance, such as declining election quality, increasing levels of corruption, and failure to promote the rule of law. Given the importance of citizen support to the survival of a democratic project, these findings underscore the centrality of restoring faith in African governments’ ability to deliver accountable, democratic governance,” the report analysed.
Democracy In Africa: Trends In Popular Satisfaction and Support
In its initial data set on democracy and governance in Africa in 2001 across 12 countries, Afrobarometer found “resounding rejection of military rule (82%), one-man rule (80%), and one-party rule (69%), as well as solid preference for democracy over any other kind of government (69%). In their essence, those first numbers are not so different from the findings we report … from our ninth round of surveys in 2021/2023, which capture the views of a much more diverse sample of 53,444 respondents in 39 countries, 25 years further down the road in Africa’s democratic experiment.”
Per the report, while a number of key indicators of democratic commitment have held steady or even improved over the past decade, several others – including some that seem critical in the face of the recent spate of military coups – have weakened. Focusing on the findings across 30 of the 39 countries that Afrobarometer has tracked consistently over the past decade, the report said two indicators have remained quite steady: In 2011/2013, 82% rejected “one-man rule,” a view still shared by a resounding 79% in 2021/2023. And rejection of one-party rule has remained unchanged at 78%.
“The other two indicators, however, show signs of slippage,” the report unearthed. It explained: “Support for democracy as the preferred system of government registered at 73% in 2011/2013. In 2021/2023, this view is still shared by a robust 66% of respondents, but this reflects a decline of 7 percentage points in this core indicator of popular democratic commitment. The drop in rejection of military rule is sharper, from 76% to 65%. This 11-point decline has been both more recent and more abrupt. Rejection of military rule fell 10 points just between Round 8 surveys in 2019/2021 and Round 9 surveys in 2021/2023.”
Examining the people’s support for democratic norms, the report again depicts evidence of both positive and modestly negative change. “Support is strong and generally steady for a wide range of democratic norms, from presidential term limits to accountability and rule of law. Across 30 countries, support does not fall below 60% for any of these norms in the most recent survey.”
It said effective checks and balances among the branches of government are a critical feature of a functioning democracy, and African citizens appear to recognise this. “Support for presidential accountability to Parliament has remained steady over the past decade, registering at 66% in 2011/2013 and 67% in 2021/2023. African citizens are also committed to multiparty competition to ensure robust debate, innovation, and accountability within the political landscape.”
Also, the report said support for multiparty competition has been strong and steady (63% in 2011/2013, 64% in 2021/2023). Presidential term limits, which face frequent challenges from leaders’ intent on hanging on to power, remain consistently popular, with levels of support fluctuating between 72% and 77% over the past decade. And over the last two survey rounds, citizens have expressed robust support (64%) for media freedom, another vital tool for holding governments accountable.
Other indicators also show substantial gains. Popular support for the rule of law in the form of presidential compliance with court decisions has increased from 67% in 2011/2013 to 73% in 2021/2023. Even more notable are the gains in preference for government accountability, which has increased from 52% a decade ago to 61% in the most recent survey. “This finding is particularly striking considering the profound need for more effective public service delivery in many countries,” the report said.
Prior to the democratic transitions of the 1990s, governments were largely unaccountable to citizens, and questioning leaders was a risky venture. Today, in sharp contrast, the report finds that six in 10 citizens are not willing to trade away government accountability, even for the prize of faster decision-making and “getting things done.”
Declining support for elections, on the other hand, presents a challenging counterpoint, Afrobarometer warns, underscoring that the importance of elections as a cornerstone of democracy has been summed up succinctly by Michael Bratton (1998), who argues: “While you can have elections without democracy, you cannot have democracy without elections. If nothing else, the convening of scheduled multiparty elections serves the minimal function of marking democracy’s survival.”
“Yet we observe a troubling drop in support for elections as the best way to choose leaders, which is down 8 points over the past decade. Even so, fully three out of four Africans see elections as the best option, and support has remained steady at this level across several recent survey rounds after a sharp drop between Round 6 (2014/2015) and Round 7 (2016/2018). Nonetheless, in combination with the decline in support for democracy as the preferred system of governance and increasing tolerance for military rule, these trends in critical indicators warrant closer examination.”
Country-Level Changes in Key Indicators
Support For Democracy
As of 2023, support for democracy ranges from a high of 87% in Zambia to less than half this number – just 39% – in Mali. Preference for democracy now falls short of a majority opinion in five countries – Mali, South Africa (43%), Angola (47%), Mozambique (49%), and Lesotho (49%). The average 7-percentage-point decline in support for democracy over the past decade reflects startling changes in attitudes in several countries, including several countries currently or previously ranked among the handful of “free” polities on the continent.
Preference for democracy dropped a remarkable 29 percentage points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali, 18 points in both Malawi and Tunisia, and 17 points in Burkina Faso. There were also decreases of 4 points or more in 19 of the 30 countries, while only four countries showed significant increases, led by Eswatini (+10 points) and Sierra Leone (+8). “Although several of these countries – most notably South Africa – remain democratic and free, waning public support for the system, if left unchecked, could spell potential problems in years to come,” the report warned. On a more promising note, it said Zambia (87%) and Senegal (84%) as well as Cabo Verde (84%), Uganda (81%), and Benin (79%) reveal both very strong and very steady support for democracy over the past decade, despite recent political challenges in all of these countries.
Rejection Of Military Rule
Zambia once again tops the chart, with a resounding 90% rejecting the prospect of military government, followed closely by Uganda (87%), Eswatini (85%), and Seychelles (85%). The contrast with Mali and Burkina Faso – both countries that have experienced recent coups and are currently under military rule – could not be sharper: Fewer than one in five Malians (18%) and just one in four Burkinabè (25%) reject this authoritarian alternative. It is also a minority position in Niger (44%) and Tunisia (42%), two other countries that have experienced recent coups or major democratic setbacks. A decade ago, majorities in all 30 countries rejected military leadership. After drops of 40 and 37 percentage points, respectively, Mali and Burkina Faso now stand as the most accepting of military rule. There were double-digit declines in 14 other countries as well, including Côte d’Ivoire (-27 points), Cameroon (-19 points), and even Ghana (-18 points). Overall, 23 of the 30 countries dropped by 4 points or more. Morocco is the lone exception, recording an increase of 12 points over the past decade.
Further concerns about popular perceptions of military rule are raised by responses to a question asked for the first time in Afrobarometer Round 9 about whether military intervention in politics is ever appropriate. Across 39 countries, 53% are willing to countenance the military taking control of government “when elected leaders abuse power for their ends,” while a minority of 42% instead say the military should never intervene in politics. Moreover, although Africa’s youth differ little from their elders in their support for democracy, they express a greater willingness to tolerate military intervention. These attitudes toward military rule suggest that a combination of trust in the military, frustration with poor governance, and waning (or lacking) memories of the harsh realities experienced during a previous era of military governments may be chipping away at resistance to this particular form of authoritarian rule.
Commitment To Elections
These patterns are repeated yet again when it comes to support for elections, although even after an 8-percentage point drop over the decade, a robust three-fourths (75%) of Africans continue to view elections as the best option for choosing leaders. Declines of 4 points or more in 26 of 30 countries, were unearthed, led by drops of 24 points in Tunisia and 15 points or more in Cameroon, Mali, Lesotho, and Burkina Faso. Sierra Leone, with a 13-point increase in commitment to elections, is the only exception.
Supply Of Democratic Governance
Afrobarometer’s analyses over the past two decades have consistently shown that while large majorities prefer democracy and reject non-democratic alternatives, perceived levels of supply of democracy and accountable governance lag behind popular aspirations.
On average, across the 39 countries surveyed in 2021/2023, fewer than half (45%) of respondents describe their countries as “a full democracy” or “a democracy with minor problems,” and only 37% say they are “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way democracy works in their countries. A review of trends over time reveals a pattern of modest but steady decline in all of the indicators of democratic supply. Across the 30 countries tracked for the past decade, the proportion who think their country is mostly or completely democratic has dropped by 8 percentage points, from 54% to 46%, while the decline in satisfaction has been an even sharper 11 points, falling from 50% to 39%. Similarly, modest declines in the perceived quality of elections (-7 points) and the president’s perceived accountability to Parliament (-7 points) and to the courts (-6 points) were observed.
The sense that officials do not enjoy legal impunity, always low, has fallen another 3 points, to just 37%.
Declining Satisfaction with Democracy
The average 11-percentage-point decrease over the past decade encompasses a remarkable collapse in satisfaction with democracy in a number of countries, including Botswana (-40 points), Mauritius (-40 points), South Africa (-35 points), Ghana (-23 points), and Namibia (-12 points) – all considered democratic stalwarts on the continent.
Satisfaction also declined by at least 20 points in Eswatini (-25 points), Lesotho (-24 points), and Senegal (-20 points). In all, 16 countries experienced double-digit declines in democratic satisfaction, while just two, Togo (+12 points) and Zimbabwe (+15 points), recording similarly large gains. Only six countries registered improvements of at least 4 points. The least satisfied countries now are Gabon (7%) and Congo-Brazzaville (15%) (neither of which was included in Round 5) along with Eswatini (11%). At the positive extreme, Tanzania and Zambia are exceptions: Both recorded some of the highest levels of satisfaction in Round 5 and Round 9, and they are the only two countries that continue to record levels of satisfaction of at least 60% in 2021/2023 (compared to 11 countries in 2011/2013).
Zambia’s current high level of satisfaction represents a sharp recovery from a fall to just 37% in Round 8 (2019/2021), before the most recent election reversed the country’s seeming slide toward more authoritarian rule.
Cause For Optimism and Concern
Most Africans still prefer democracy to any other system of government, reject non-democratic alternatives, and endorse core democratic norms, institutions, and practices. But some cracks are showing in the bulwark of democratic support. Over the past decade, popular support for democracy has declined sharply in several countries, including some of the continent’s current or former democratic leaders. And popular opposition to military rule has weakened across the continent; more than half of Africans say military intervention is acceptable “when elected leaders abuse power for their ends.”
But the primary “democratic problem” for many African countries continues to be not a demand-side failure of popular support, but a supply-side failure to deliver on the norms and practices of democracy. The proportion of citizens rating their country as a democracy has declined between 2011 and 2023, including steep drops in several countries long regarded as democratic mainstays. Citizen satisfaction with the way democracy works has declined in a majority of countries. And citizen ratings of the performance of elected leaders in delivering democratic and accountable norms and institutions have either been worsening over time, as in the case of presidential respect for the courts and Parliament, or have remained stagnant at very low levels, as in the case of equal treatment before the law.
These setbacks overshadow some democratic gains over the years, fuelling dire warnings from stakeholders that democracy is losing ground on the continent.
