The recent forced displacement of more than 13,000 Ghanaians into neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire in the aftermath of the Gbiniyiri land clashes in the Savannah Region is more than just a humanitarian concern. It is a fresh reminder of the intricate relationship between internal communal conflicts, refugee flows, and the contagion of insecurity in West Africa. What began as a localised land dispute in Sawla-Tuna-Kalba District has now spilt across Ghana’s frontier, creating ripples with implications for both national stability and regional security.
A Local Conflict with Transnational Consequences
According to Ghana’s Interior Minister, Mubarak Mohammed Muntaka, the violence that erupted on August 24, 2025, has claimed 31 lives and displaced more than 48,000 people, with 13,253 confirmed as refugees in Côte d’Ivoire. Thousands more are scattered across Burkina Faso and within Ghana’s own borders (Government of Ghana, 2025). This mirrors a disturbing pattern in the region, where localised conflicts—whether ethnic feuds, land disputes, or resource struggles—migrate beyond borders, straining fragile states already grappling with insurgencies and fragile economies (International Crisis Group, 2020).
The Gbiniyiri case highlights how communal land disputes, often regarded as local matters, can rapidly escalate into cross-border security dilemmas. Entire families abandoning their farms and livestock not only threatens food security in Ghana’s north but also creates conditions ripe for possible radicalisation, crime, and exploitation within host territories.
Africa’s Refugee Burden and the Contagion of Insecurity
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa currently hosts over 18 million refugees—about 26% of the global total (UNHCR, 2023a). Yet, the refugee phenomenon in Africa cannot be detached from security contagion: displacement is both the result of insecurity and a potential trigger for further instability (Whitaker, 2017).
Refugee camps, due to their density and lack of regulation, have historically provided cover for illicit networks—traffickers, armed groups, extremist recruiters, and fugitives. Kenya’s warning about the Dadaab camp allegedly harbouring al-Shabaab militants after the Garissa University massacre in 2015 (Anderson & McKnight, 2015), or the notoriety of Ghana’s Buduburam camp as a hub for organised crime (Agblorti, 2011), are cautionary tales. Host states inevitably face the risk that violence and extremist ideologies from the refugees’ countries of origin seep into their own social fabric.
In West Africa today, such risks are heightened by ongoing insurgencies in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, where jihadist groups exploit porous borders and displaced populations to expand their operational zones (OECD, 2023). Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin—all coastal states previously considered “safe”—are already on high alert as Sahelian instability drifts southwards. Refugee influxes in such contexts can unwittingly serve as vectors for insecurity (Kassim, 2020).
Displacement Crisis
By late 2023, ECOWAS and UNHCR estimated nearly 7 million forcibly displaced persons in the sub-region, including over 6.3 million internally displaced and more than 620,000 refugees (ECOWAS & UNHCR, 2023). Nigeria and Burkina Faso alone accounted for the majority of this population, while Niger hosted the largest number of refugees. With political instability, climate shocks, and the persistence of jihadist insurgencies, UNHCR projected a 9% increase in displacement in West and Central Africa by 2024, reaching 13.6 million people (UNHCR, 2023b).
The Gbiniyiri displacement, therefore, adds to a sub-regional trend: protracted crises spilling into countries that are themselves only beginning to build resilience. Côte d’Ivoire, already hosting refugees from Liberia, Burkina Faso, and Mali, must now absorb over 13,000 Ghanaians—a development that tests the country’s own fragile north (Koné, 2022).
The Security–Refugee Nexus
The nexus between security contagion and refugeeism manifests in several ways:
- Refugee camps as incubators of insecurity – Camps can evolve into hubs for trafficking, recruitment, and radicalisation if left unregulated (Whitaker, 2017).
- Cross-border diffusion of local conflicts – A communal dispute in Ghana becomes Côte d’Ivoire’s humanitarian and security burden.
- Strain on host-country security systems – Monitoring camps, preventing human trafficking, and managing law enforcement overstretches already fragile institutions (Agblorti, 2011).
- Recruitment grounds for extremist groups – Disenfranchised refugee youth are especially vulnerable to extremist narratives promising belonging and survival.
- Reverse insecurity transmission – Just as violence in one state displaces refugees, extremist infiltration of camps can later destabilise the very host communities providing shelter (OECD, 2023).
Implications for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire
For Ghana, the Gbiniyiri displacement is a wake-up call to treat communal conflicts as national security threats, not just traditional disputes. With its northern borders adjacent to Burkina Faso’s jihadist-plagued regions, unresolved disputes could become openings for extremist infiltration. The government’s deployment of 700 security personnel is an immediate response, but long-term strategies must prioritise conflict resolution, land administration reform, and community peacebuilding (Government of Ghana, 2025).
For Côte d’Ivoire, the influx adds another layer of complexity to its fragile security landscape. Hosting refugees in already volatile northern zones risks drawing the state deeper into West Africa’s displacement-insecurity spiral. Without careful screening, monitoring, and integration mechanisms, the humanitarian imperative could morph into a national security liability (Koné, 2022).
Breaking the Cycle
To break the cycle of insecurity-induced displacement and displacement-induced insecurity, a multi-pronged approach is necessary:
- Strengthened early-warning systems for local conflicts before they escalate into cross-border displacements.
- Developing risk registers based on intelligence and early warning to engender deployment of effective response mechanisms.
- Regional burden-sharing mechanisms, particularly through ECOWAS, to distribute refugee responsibilities equitably.
- Robust camp governance and screening, ensuring that camps are not exploited by criminal or extremist networks.
- Socio-economic integration strategies, transforming refugees into contributors rather than perceived threats.
- Collaboration between security and humanitarian actors, so that human security and state security are treated as complementary rather than competing goals.
Conclusion
The Gbiniyiri land dispute has illuminated a critical truth: refugeeism and security contagion are inseparable in West Africa’s fragile landscape. Every new displacement is not just a humanitarian statistic but also a potential flashpoint for instability in both origin and host countries. Ghana’s tragedy must, therefore, serve as a regional lesson—communal conflicts, however local, are never contained in isolation. In an interconnected sub-region haunted by insurgencies and weak borders, the only way to prevent security contagion is to strengthen early warning systems through robust intelligence collection and address the root causes of displacement with urgency, inclusivity, and foresight.
References
- Agblorti, S. K. (2011). Refugee integration in Ghana: The host community’s perspective. UNHCR Policy Development and Evaluation Service.
- Anderson, D. M., & McKnight, J. (2015). Kenya at war: Al-Shabaab and its enemies in Eastern Africa. African Affairs, 114(454), 1–27.
- ECOWAS & UNHCR. (2023). Forced displacement in West Africa: Regional overview. Abuja: ECOWAS Commission.
- Government of Ghana. (2025). Ministry of Interior Press Briefing on the Gbiniyiri clashes. Accra: Government of Ghana.
- International Crisis Group. (2020). Mitigating communal conflicts in West Africa. Brussels: ICG.
- Kassim, A. (2020). The role of refugee crises in West African insecurity. Journal of African Security Studies, 29(4), 421–439.
- Koné, I. (2022). Refugee management and security challenges in Côte d’Ivoire’s northern regions. African Security Review, 31(2), 115–134.
- OECD. (2023). State fragility in the Sahel: Security and displacement dynamics. Paris: OECD Publishing.
- UNHCR. (2023a). Global trends: Forced displacement in 2022. Geneva: UNHCR.
- UNHCR. (2023b). West and Central Africa regional update. Geneva: UNHCR.
- Whitaker, B. E. (2017). Refugees and insecurity in Africa. Journal of International Relations and Development, 20(2), 308–330.
