Competition for global influence and dominance was exemplified in the past by the physical presence of armies and military bases to oversee the interests of powerful states. A global power, therefore, is a nation that has significant influence over international affairs in multiple domains, including military, economic, cultural and technological. Notable among the key global powers that fit this description are the United States, Russia and China.
Russia’s long-awaited plan to establish its first naval base in Africa is finally moving forward. Sudan’s foreign minister, Ali Youssef Ahmed al-Sharif, recently confirmed that there are no obstacles to implementing the 2020 agreement, which allows Russia to station up to four naval ships, including nuclear-powered vessels, on Sudan’s Red Sea coast for 25 years. This development places Russia alongside the U.S. and China, both of which already have military bases in Djibouti, further intensifying global competition in the region.
The Red Sea is a critical global trade route, with approximately 12% of the world’s trade passing through it. Russia’s presence here is not just about securing a foothold in Africa but also about challenging Western dominance and strengthening its influence in the region. However, Sudan’s internal instability exacerbated by the ongoing civil war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with Russian-backed Wagner elements supporting the RSF—adds another layer of complexity. With both geopolitical and security stakes at play, Sudan’s strategic location is rapidly transforming into a contested space where global powers maneuver for influence (The Guardian, 2025)
But what does this mean for Africa? Will this naval base strengthen regional security or further entangle the continent in global power struggles? This article explores the implications of Russia’s latest move and its potential impact on Sudan, Africa, and the international stage.
- Geopolitical Implications of Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa
The establishment of a Russian naval base in Sudan expands Moscow’s military presence in Africa, positioning it as a key player in regional security. The base provides Russia with a strategic foothold in the Red Sea, one of the most critical waterways for global trade and energy transportation (Shapir, 2023). With this base, Russia can exert greater control over maritime activities and strengthen its relationships with African nations seeking security cooperation.
Russia’s naval base in Sudan is likely to intensify competition between Moscow and Western powers, particularly the United States. Former U.S. diplomat Cameron Hudson has suggested that the U.S. sees Sudan’s Red Sea coast as a crucial security zone and will actively oppose Russian and Iranian military presence there. The Trump administration, in particular, is expected to take a firm stance against Sudan hosting a Russian base, fearing that it could disrupt regional security dynamics and threaten American interests in the Red Sea. This resistance may manifest in diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, or efforts to counter Russian influence through expanded Western military cooperation with Sudan’s government.
Additionally, the U.S. aims to expand the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, with Sudan as a key signatory. Hudson questions how the accords can be effectively implemented while Sudan remains embroiled in civil war and deepening military ties with Russia. If the base moves forward, the U.S. may reconsider its approach to Sudan, applying targeted sanctions or working closely with regional allies to contain Russian expansion (MSN, 2025).
Russia’s move challenges the dominance of Western powers in Africa, particularly the United States, France, and the UK, which have historically maintained a strong military presence on the continent. This development could encourage other African nations to build closer ties with Russia, shifting away from traditional Western alliances. Countries like Mali and the Central African Republic have already deepened their defense cooperation with Moscow, and Sudan may follow suit (Ramani, 2023).
Additionally, regional organizations like the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) may struggle to navigate this new security landscape, as different member states align with opposing global powers.
- Security Implications
i. Boosting Russian Military Engagement
Russia’s naval base will likely lead to increased military cooperation between Moscow and African governments. This includes providing military training, arms supplies, and intelligence-sharing agreements (Dahir, 2023). For Sudan, this means greater access to advanced weaponry and military technology, which could influence ongoing conflicts.
ii. Rise of Mercenary Activity (Wagner Group/Africa Corps)
Russian private military companies, such as the Wagner Group, have been active in African nations like Mali, the Central African Republic, and Libya. A naval base in Sudan could serve as a logistical hub for these groups, allowing for expanded Russian-backed security operations across Africa. This could increase instability, especially if Russian mercenaries become involved in local conflicts.
iii. Destabilization Risks
Sudan is already facing a devastating civil war. Russia’s deeper involvement could either stabilize the situation by providing military assistance or worsen the conflict by fueling tensions between rival factions. Additionally, Western countries might counter Russia’s influence by increasing their own military presence in the region, turning Sudan into a battleground for global powers (Marten, 2022).
- Economic Implications
i. Strategic Trade and Energy Interests
Sudan’s Red Sea location makes it a key player in global oil and gas trade. A Russian naval base could impact these trade flows, potentially giving Moscow leverage over energy exports (Ramani, 2023). Sudan also has significant natural resources, including gold and uranium, which Russia may seek to exploit as part of its economic strategy in Africa.
ii. Potential Economic Gains for Sudan
Despite concerns, Sudan could benefit economically from the Russian base. The deal might include military aid, infrastructure investments, and job creation for local workers (Zamfir, 2023). However, these benefits depend on the long-term stability of Sudan’s government and its ability to negotiate favorable terms with Moscow.
iii. Sanctions and Western Economic Repercussions
Hosting a Russian naval base may lead to economic consequences for Sudan, particularly if Western nations impose sanctions. The U.S. and EU have previously sanctioned African governments for aligning with Russia, which could result in reduced trade and financial aid for Sudan (Dahir, 2023). Sudan’s economy, already struggling due to internal conflict, could face further isolation from Western markets.
- Diplomatic Consequences for Africa
i. Tensions Between Russia and the West on African Soil
African countries may face pressure to choose sides between Russia and Western nations. Countries with strong Western ties, such as Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa, might oppose Russia’s growing military footprint in Africa (Marten, 2022). This could lead to divisions within regional organizations and make it harder for African nations to maintain a neutral stance in global conflicts.
ii. Increased Militarization of the Red Sea Region
With Russia establishing a base in Sudan, other global powers might expand their military presence in the Red Sea. The U.S., China, and Turkey already have bases in the region, and Russia’s involvement could lead to a more militarized and contested environment (Ramani, 2023). This increases the risk of naval confrontations, which could disrupt African trade and security.
Conclusion
Russia’s naval base in Sudan marks a significant shift in Africa’s geopolitical landscape. While the base strengthens Russia’s influence and provides security assistance to Sudan, it also risks exacerbating regional tensions and attracting Western sanctions. African nations must carefully navigate this development, balancing security concerns with economic and diplomatic interests. As global powers compete for strategic control, Africa may increasingly find itself at the center of international rivalries, shaping its future in unpredictable ways.
The Africa Union needs to be clear as to what it wants in Africa within the medium term as the impacts of these alliances have significant consequences on the rest of Africa. African countries can always collaborate with the major powers without allowing their bases on African soil.
Having stated that however, CISA sees challenges as follows;
Sudan’s Relationship with Neighboring Countries:
- Egypt: – there is likely to be rivalry with Egypt which is an economic and military powerhouse. Historically, Egypt has been uncomfortable with external military presence along the Nile and Red Sea which are crucial to its security.
- South Sudan – South Sudan could see the establishment of a base by Russia as complicating its relations with the West as well as an indirect interference within the medium term in its internal affairs.
- Ethiopia – Ethiopia has traditionally been wary of outside powers and is just emerging from a brutal civil war. Any country collaborating with a global power could engender a shift in regional power dynamics and exacerbate the fragility within the region.
A military base therefore could affect Sudan’s relations with the West and the Middle Eastern nations and make its neighbours uncomfortable. On the other hand, it could enable Russia to strengthen its geopolitical and economic position in northeastern Africa and use that as a springboard to expand its influence as an alternative to the West.
References
- Ali, F. (2025). Sudan says plan for first Russian naval base in Africa will go ahead. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/13/sudan-first-russian-naval-base-in-africa-go-ahead? Accessed on 13/02/2025
- Dahir, A. L. (2023). Russia’s growing influence in Africa: What it means for the West. The New York Times.
- Marten, K. (2022). Russia in Africa: The implications of military expansion. Foreign Affairs.
- MSN. (2025). https://www.msn.com/en-ae/politics/government/will-trump-allow-russia-to-set-up-a-military-base-in-sudan/ar-AA1z8WH3
- Ramani, S. (2023). Moscow’s strategy in Africa: A rising power or overreach? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
- Shapir, Y. (2023). Geopolitics of the Red Sea: A contested maritime space. International Institute for Strategic Studies.
