Introduction
Ghana holds national elections every four years and a general expectation among election watchers, is that Ghanaians in general and the key political actors in the country’s electoral cycle and processes would have become used to the cycle by now. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that electoral violence has become central to the political activities that precede the voting process and the declaration of results. At the centre of the electoral process is the Electoral Commission (EC) which has the constitutional mandate to conduct a free, fair, credible and transparent election every four years. The Commission walks a tightrope, as its actions and inactions are easily interpreted or misinterpreted by key political actors as either being in their favour or against them.
The critical issues of concern likely to influence voter choices in the 2024 elections will hinge on or around the state of the economy, living standards and poverty levels, levels of access to public services, governance and transparency and the vexed issues of high interest rates and foreign exchange rates. The stakes are high and every advantage is being sought by actors to gain leverage. This, unfortunately, includes the perpetration of violence and intimidation of opponents.
The last couple of weeks has witnessed an increase in election-related violence, especially in the course of campaigning. CISA does not rule out the possibility of the situation getting worse as the campaign picks up greater steam in the last months to the election and suggests greater intelligence gathering by the security agencies and general state of preparedness on their part.
It has become clear that unless proactive measures are undertaken, there would be serious violence that has the capacity to mar the electoral process and undermine the hard-fought reputation of the country as a beacon of democracy in Africa.
Recent Incidents of Political Violence
A study by Bauer (2024) has indicated that nearly all candidates for parliament in Ghana (95 percent) experience some form of political violence, namely, degrading talk or false rumours. Naturally, this raises concern for all well-meaning Ghanaians about the stability of democracy in the country. This is not a picture that is painted in isolation though. A few incidents that attest to this growth include the following;
- Violence in the Odododiodio constituency in the Greater Accra Region has been rampant. This constituency is in the heart of Accra and is keenly contested every four years. In December 2020, a 15-year-old girl was killed during electoral violence in Odododiodio.
- In the Chereponi district in the Northern region, there has been violence in the past linked to elections, particularly between the supporters of the two main political parties in Ghana.
- In the Ashanti region, Asawase constituency has recorded violent incidents in the past, often between the two main political parties.
- In Ayawaso West Wuogon constituency in Accra, this constituency made headlines after violent incidents during a bye election. The situation was so bad that there were calls for an institution of a commission of enquiry.
- Kasoa is also noted as a violence endemic spot with incidents of gun firing during the last elections.
The electoral commission has completed the process of registering first time voters and has gone on to begin the process of voter transfer for those wishing to transfer their votes. There have been several incidents that have occurred over the past one month with headlines as follows;
- Hawa Koomson’s challenger arrested for unlawful possession of a gun
- Violence at Kasoa EC office
- We will resist any attempt to rig election 2024
- Hawa Koomson’s son in critical condition for stab wounds
Impacts of Political Violence on the Electoral Process
Violence, wherever it is perpetrated, has very bad impacts on the populace, undermines social cohesion, breeds additional violence and leaves emotional and psychological scars that cannot easily heal. Relative to elections, it can have devastating impacts on voter turnout and long term impacts on national development. Some of its key impacts include;
- Institution of fear and intimidation among the voter population. When this occurs, it affects voter turnout and skews outcomes most times in favour of the perpetrators
- There have been incidents where such violence affects the actual polling process by disrupting the process altogether. In such instances, people quickly disperse for fear of their lives.
- Violence also leads to voter suppression when it occurs. Indeed, well known party supporters are sometimes specifically targeted to ensure suppression of votes from such active supporters. It also ensures that some areas within a constituency become no go areas for political actors to engage in interaction with potential voters.
- Linked to the above is the displacement of the population of key support bases for certain political parties. These actions are sometimes very targeted to suppress and change voting patterns that are linked to specific geographic areas.
- Furthermore, violence tends to manipulate voter choices relative to the candidate of preference.
- Violence also leads to erosion of trust of the populace in democracy, the security services and the electoral commission. When violence occurs, it leads to questions and accusations of complicity of the security forces in such actions.
Political violence continues to occur because although violent political vigilantes have been banned, they persist in several ways. Their continued existence is supportive of a culture of impunity that goes unpunished. It is asserted that such forces exist and continue to be affiliated to the two main leading political parties. They include;
- Delta Force, based in Ashanti region and affiliated to the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
- The Invincible Forces based in several regions but largely operational in Ashanti and Greater Accra also affiliated to the NPP.
- The Azorka Boys, based in the Northern Region with a presence in other parts of the country, is believed to be affiliated to the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
- The Bolga Bulldogs are believed to operate mainly in the Upper East region and are affiliated to the NDC.
It is generally felt among peace and security sensitive and conscious Ghanaians, that these groups should be effectively disbanded otherwise, they will constitute a potential threat to peace during this year’s elections.
Confronting the Emerging Threat to Peace and Security
As a matter of urgency, the emerging violence has to be dealt with to forestall reprisal attacks. The political hotspots for such activities, based on past incidents, are well known. The following are recommended for consideration and immediate action, given the scarcity of resources.
- A risk register would need to be developed as a matter of urgency, delineating all the hotspots and mapping them with the type of incidents that resulted in the area. This would then align with the type of resources required for deployment in case of recurrence given that there are not enough resources to deal with multiple flashpoints across the country.
- An early warning system needs to be developed, that would be triggered as soon as certain incidents, utterances, meetings and activities take place in the key areas outlined in the risk register.
- Political Dialogue must be engendered between key actors at the local level led by prominent personalities who are apolitical.
- Regular community engagements between residents and the security hierarchy at the local level to ensure that all key actors in peace and security maintenance activities are educated on the rules regulating such activities, in order to keep violence at the barest minimum.
Conclusion
The incidents of violence in the past several weeks give cause for concern, particularly, the incidents of stabbing and firing of gunshots. Such levels of violence are at variance with the dictates of political maturity and exemplariness in the pursuit of democracy.
Ghana is in a region that is highly volatile and political events in nations surrounding it are disturbing: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso have truncated the political process and instilled a nationalistic enthusiasm, blaming others for their woes. The necessary efforts should be made by all stakeholders, to prevent a perpetration of violence likely to spark off civil disobedience or even coup d’etats in these countries.
