Introduction
As the threat of terrorism escalates in parts of West Africa, governments are increasingly turning to military action. Although these military operations are essential for ensuring safety, they impose a considerable economic burden on both the affected nations and the wider region. These financial strains encompass not only direct military costs but also indirect consequences, such as disrupted economic activities, decreased investment, and heightened social instability. Understanding these factors is essential for creating sustainable counter-terrorism strategies that align security requirements with developmental objectives (UNDP, 2017).
National Defence Expenditures
Between 2007 and 2016, Africa incurred an estimated loss of US$119 billion due to terrorism. However, this amount only represents a fraction of the overall impact. When accounting for additional consequences like GDP declines, disruptions in informal economies, and forced migrations, the actual cost becomes overwhelming. According to UNDP (2020), 16 of the most affected countries in Africa lose approximately US$97 billion each year in informal economic activities alone. These funds could have been utilised for education, healthcare, or infrastructure development.
In Nigeria, the human and economic impact is particularly alarming. From 2009 to 2023, more than 35,000 lives were claimed by insurgency. Significant amounts of infrastructure have been damaged, communities have been uprooted, and economic activities have been interrupted (UNDP, 2023). Recently, the Nigerian government indicated that more than US$200 billion in national assets have been lost to acts of terrorism and militancy since 1999 (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2023). These figures illustrate not just material loss but also a substantial hindrance to national development in the long run.
However, it is not only the nations experiencing direct violence that bear the burden. As Boly and Kéré (2022) describe, terrorism raises defence spending throughout whole regions. Governments partake in “yardstick competition,” elevating military budgets partially in reaction to the actions of their neighbouring countries. Consequently, even nations that are relatively stable, such as Ghana or Côte d’Ivoire, are investing significantly in their defense not necessarily because of internal issues, but rather due to external regional pressures.
The ECOWAS region has committed more than US$2.3 billion for counter-terrorism initiatives from 2020 to 2024 (ISS Africa, 2024). Although these initiatives reflect a strong sense of regional unity, they also divert essential funds away from public services that the population depends on regularly. According to the African Development Bank (2023), these compromises frequently undermine developmental objectives.
What’s particularly concerning is the lasting opportunity cost. Each dollar allocated for a missile is a dollar that isn’t invested in education. These decisions have ongoing consequences that exacerbate inequality, undermine state legitimacy, and, paradoxically, stoke the very grievances that extremist organisations take advantage of.
Broader Economic Impacts
Outside of defence budgets, terrorism and militarised reactions can weaken economies internally. They dissuade foreign investments, disrupt trade routes, decrease productivity, and hinder GDP growth. In 2016, nations most affected by violent extremism experienced GDP declines of up to 2.4%, while neighbouring countries incurred additional losses due to spillover effects (UNDP, 2017).
Currently, these economic losses are even more urgent. The African Development Bank (2023) projects that terrorism and military actions can diminish GDP growth by as much as 8% in impacted nations. Such statistics should signify critical warnings, particularly for policymakers striving to fulfil social spending obligations amid limited fiscal resources.
At a more profound level, insecurity weakens investor trust, destabilises local markets, and alters national priorities. In today’s digital economy, the impact of terrorism extends beyond physical devastation. Extremist groups can exploit online platforms to manipulate narratives, create mistrust in institutions, and divide communities, without resorting to violence. Similar to how algorithms influence user beliefs, adversaries now shape societal fears.
Even more concerning is that military spending is on the rise in nations that have not experienced direct attacks. Boly and Kéré (2022) report that regional instability pushes governments to overreact, fearing exposure. This budget model, driven by defence, creates a cycle where military spending becomes politically essential yet economically ineffective, particularly in countries already grappling with debt, inflation, or fiscal challenges.
Ghana serves as a relevant case study. While it is generally more stable than the countries to its north, it has encountered increasing military expenses during a time of economic hardship. Surging inflation, external debt, and various development priorities have created challenges in reconciling security needs with social investments (UNDP, 2017). The issue extends beyond mere border defence; it also involves safeguarding the social contract.
Sustainable Economic Approaches to Complement Military Efforts
Given the high costs and limited long-term efficacy of military solutions, West African nations need multidimensional counter-terrorism strategies. These include:
Address Root Causes
Terrorism flourishes in environments lacking hope. Factors such as marginalised youth, high unemployment rates, and ineffective governance create a breeding ground for extremist recruitment. Investing in job opportunities, small and medium enterprise (SME) growth, and education transcends mere developmental objectives—it is crucial for security. For instance, ECOWAS is currently backing initiatives that collaborate with religious and traditional leaders to promote positive values and provide non-violent alternatives, intending to sever extremist groups’ influence over susceptible youth. Neglecting these fundamental causes will lead to short-lived military victories and perpetuate the cycle of violence.
Regional Cooperation
No single country can effectively combat a threat that so easily crosses borders. ECOWAS’s Priority Action Plan to Eradicate Terrorism aims to enhance coordination, intelligence sharing, and collective action. However, similar to the challenges posed by fragmented regulatory frameworks for digital threats, political discord and insufficient funding have weakened this collaborative strategy. Member states often emphasise their national priorities, which diminishes the effectiveness of regional endeavours. Renewing genuine cooperation where resources, intelligence, and tactics are shared is essential for achieving sustainable solutions. In its absence, extremists will exploit gaps in national responses.
Disrupt Terrorist Financing
Extremist organisations are bolstered by swift financial transactions that often outpace governmental tracking systems. It is critical to enhance financial intelligence units, enforce anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, and improve banking transparency to mitigate these financial streams. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) emphasises the importance of strong legislation, capacity building, and regional collaboration to keep up with changing tactics, including the use of emerging technologies and informal networks. Similar to digital information, funding for terrorism remains hidden until it becomes a weapon, by which time, significant harm has already occurred.
Community-Based Security
Communities are typically the first to identify signs of radicalisation and are also the first to feel its repercussions. Initiatives like Nigeria’s Empowering Community Security (ECOS) demonstrate the effectiveness of grassroots peace committees, early warning systems, and peer engagement in enhancing local resilience. By training facilitators for community dialogue and involving women and youth, these initiatives build trust, ease tensions, and offer alternative pathways to violence. This approach views security as a collective civic responsibility rather than merely a military imposition, akin to digital literacy campaigns that equip citizens to recognise and resist online manipulation.
Integrated International Partnerships
Military actions alone cannot ensure enduring peace. International collaborations need to merge military, humanitarian, and developmental approaches to guarantee that security advancements are not undone by economic hardship or social disintegration. The Accra Initiative, backed by UNDP and global donors, illustrates how capacity building and knowledge exchange can strengthen local and regional initiatives. This integrated method echoes the necessity for a comprehensive societal response to multifaceted threats.
Conclusion
Military actions are crucial for combating terrorism in West Africa, but they need to be complemented with strategies focused on economic and social development. The region is experiencing heightened financial strain due to increased military expenditures; however, achieving sustainable peace necessitates comprehensive approaches that address underlying issues and enhance economic stability. By embracing military, economic and developmental efforts, West African nations can alleviate the costs associated with counterterrorism and foster enduring stability.
Source: CISA Analyst
References
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Boly, A., & Kéré, É. N. (2022). Terrorism and military expenditure in Africa: An analysis of spillover effects (African Development Bank Working Paper No. 368).
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