The relationship between land acreage and agricultural output is a critical aspect of agric economics and food security. Food insecurity and climate change are closely interconnected and impact methods for growing and food livelihoods, particularly in Africa. Africa, according to Statista, had around 1,173 million hectares of agricultural land in 2022, which corresponded to nearly 40 per cent of the continent’s total land area. This means the continent has enough land to produce enough food to feed its 1.4 billion people if it could.
The President of the African Development Bank Group, Dr. Akinwumi A Adesina, in his foreword to the bank’s ‘Africa Feed’ report of 2019, noted: “Africa has 65% of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land, an abundance of fresh water and about 300 days of sunshine each year. More than 60% of Africa’s working population is engaged in agriculture, and the soil across most of the continent is rich and fertile. We are losing precious foreign exchange by continuing to pay for food to be imported, so we must quickly eliminate the negative balance, and start to sow, grow, process, consume, and ultimately export the food ourselves.”
In 2017 alone, Africa spent $64.5 billion on food imports, according to the ADB, a situation Dr Adesina considers “unsustainable, irresponsible, unaffordable and completely unnecessary.”
Spending that much on food imports clearly shows the continent is neither food sufficient nor food secure. A 2024 article by the Conversation, titled, ‘60% of Africa’s food is based on wheat, rice and maize – the continent’s crop treasure trove is being neglected,’ indicated that 90 per cent of Africa’s food is from just 20 plants. Out of that figure, wheat, maize and rice account for 60% of all calories consumed on the continent and globally.
This situation makes the continent vulnerable and prone to devastating food insecurity when natural or man-made disasters such as floods, drought, mudslides, earthquakes or wars interrupt the regular supply of these foods.
How Climate Change Disasters Are Affecting Africa’s Food Production
In 2023, for instance, extreme weather conditions, according to the ‘State of the Climate in Africa 2023’ report of the World Meteorological Organization, “caused widespread floods and below-average rainfall, leading to significant food production and supply shortages in the Central African Republic, Kenya, and Somalia.”
North Africa’s cereal production in 2023, the report noted, “was estimated at 33 million tonnes, similar to the previous year’s already drought-stricken harvest and about 10% below the five-year average.”
The largest production decrease occurred in Tunisia, where the cereal output was estimated at 300,000 tonnes, over 80% below the annual average due to widespread drought conditions, the report added. It also noted a decline in Algeria, where the cereal output was estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, 12% less than in 2022 and 20% below the five-year average.
The report also indicated that in Morocco, the 2023 cereal output, estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, recovered from the drought-affected 2022 harvest but was still about 30% below the average while in Egypt and Libya, the 2023 cereal harvests were near average.
Furthermore, it observed that rainfall deficits between July and September of that year, affected parts of north-eastern and north-western Nigeria, northern Benin, and north-eastern Ghana, resulting in localised shortfalls in agricultural production.
In most producing areas, the report noted: “Cumulative rainfall amounts between June and September were average to above average, favouring crop establishment and development. In Niger, cereal production was forecast at a below-average level, as dry spells constrained yields mainly in the southern and south-western areas, and a delayed onset of seasonal rains and persisting insecurity resulted in a reduced planted area. Localised shortfalls in agricultural production were expected in the conflict-affected areas of the Liptako-Gourma region (overlapping Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso), the Lake Chad Basin and northern Nigeria, due to constrained access to cropland and agricultural inputs.”
Furthermore, it pointed out that “erratic rainfall and insecurity kept cereal production at below-average levels in northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including Sudan, South Sudan, the Karamoja region in Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and central and western Kenya. In Sudan, seasonal rains were below average and temporally erratic, with prolonged dry spells. The production of sorghum and millet was forecast to decrease by about 25% and 50% respectively, compared to 2022.”
In South Sudan also, seasonal rainfall was near average over the western half of the country, and below average over the eastern half. “The rainfall deficits were more severe in the south-eastern areas, causing shortfalls in crop production, which affected the first season harvest.”
In Ethiopia as well, the report said the overall production prospects for the main meher crops were favourable, as above-average rainfall amounts boosted yields in the key western growing areas of the Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz regions but noted however that insecurity due to conflict in some areas of the Amhara and Oromia regions, along with insufficient rains in some central and southern areas of the Oromia and former Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s (SNNP) regions, likely resulted in localised shortfalls in cereal production.
Additionally, the Deyr and Hageya rains concluded with some of the highest cumulative totals in the 40-year historical record, leading to extensive flooding in the Somali, Oromia, and southern Ethiopia regions and resulting in the loss of main season crops among agropastoral communities, mainly in riverine areas along the Shebelle and Omo rivers. Nearly 27,000 livestock died and over 72,000 hectares of planted crops were destroyed.
In key unimodal rainfall growing areas of the Central, Rift Valley and Western provinces of Kenya, the report mentioned that long-rains crops benefited from average to above-average rainfall amounts noting, however, that the aggregate long-rain maize production was estimated at 5% to 10% below the five-year average, as erratic rainfall in bimodal rainfall agropastoral and marginal agriculture areas resulted in reduced harvests in these locations.
In northern and north-eastern Kenya, flooding affected around 640,600 hectares of land, of which around 18,300 hectares were cropland.
Favourable weather conditions in Southern Africa resulted in good cereal yields, though periods of rainfall deficits and tropical cyclones (for example, Tropical Cyclone Freddy) resulted in localised shortfalls in several areas.
El Niño conditions underpinned unfavourable 2023/2024 cereal production in Southern Africa while the onset of the October to December rains was delayed by three to four weeks in central parts of the region, resulting in delayed planting and potential shortening of the crop-growing window.
Putin’s Opportunistic Food Rescue
Africa’s inability to produce all the food it needs coupled with the devastation done to the little it can produce and the grain supply disruptions instanced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, presented a great opportunity for Vladimir Putin to step in as a ‘saviour’ of the continent.
In February 2024, Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture announced that it had shipped 200,000 tonnes of grain in humanitarian aid to six African nations, fulfilling the Kremlin’s pledge to the continent last July, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported.
It quoted Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev saying that Burkina Faso, Mali, Eritrea, and Zimbabwe each received 25,000 tonnes of grain while the Central African Republic and Somalia got 50,000 tonnes each.
“The first ship departed on November 7, 2023. The average travel time stood at 30-40 days. The last vessel arrived in Somalia in late January and the unloading of its cargo was completed on February 17,” Patrushev said, adding that “this is the first time that our country carried out such a large-scale humanitarian operation.”
The beneficiaries have tended to see Russia as a benevolent nation, supporting them in their time of need. Critics of this effort are of the view that some on the continent seem to have lost sight of the fact that Russia created the very same food insecurity in the first place. It was exploiting its humanitarian gestures for glory, even though it had invaded Ukraine which had created a shortage of grains on the international markets. Ukraine, together with Russia, are major exporters of grains to Africa. The war disrupted supply chains and consequently created a shortage that caused food prices to skyrocket and, thereby, created food shortages in parts of Africa. The grain donation was a strategic move by Putin to win over the continent ahead of his political rivals.
Conclusion
Climate change, conflicts, and political instability have conspired with Africa’s inability to feed its people to enable Putin’s insipid agenda. Mr Putin is sparing nothing to use that opportunity to whitewash his image and befriend Africa for an end which he has all planned. Unfortunately, the need to satisfy Africa’s hunger immediately may have blinded the continent to any hidden agenda. After all, a hungry man must first satisfy his belly to live before any other consideration.
