{"id":5071,"date":"2025-04-01T00:01:49","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T00:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cisanewsletter.com\/?p=5071"},"modified":"2025-03-31T18:37:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-31T18:37:02","slug":"the-sudan-conflict-economic-and-security-contagion-in-east-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cisanewsletter.com\/index.php\/the-sudan-conflict-economic-and-security-contagion-in-east-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sudan Conflict:\u00a0 Economic And Security Contagion In East Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict in Sudan, which began on April 15, 2023, has had devastating consequences for the country and its neighbours. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has displaced millions, disrupted trade, and created extensive economic instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The roots of Sudan\u2019s current conflict lie in tensions between military factions that had previously cooperated. After the 2021 coup that ousted Sudan\u2019s transitional government, the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), struggled for control over military integration and economic resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These tensions have historical roots in Sudan\u2019s intricate political environment. The failure to integrate the RSF into the national army, alongside disputes over the country\u2019s lucrative economic sectors like gold mining and oil revenue, further escalated the conflict into a full-blown war in April 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fighting over two years has had a devastating effect on the civilian population, though most of the news from Sudan has been overshadowed by the Ukraine and Gaza wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By June 2024, it was estimated that about 150,000 people had been killed in the conflict which also displaced another 12 million, the world\u2019s largest displacement, with most of the population facing serious food shortages. In August last year, after capturing Al-Jazirah, the country\u2019s food centre, the RSF was accused of deliberately destroying food reserves and creating a man-made famine, even as the SAF faced charges of blocking food aid to RSF-controlled Darfur (Frontline, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Consequences for Sudan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sudan\u2019s economy was already fragile before the conflict, but the outbreak of war has exacerbated existing challenges. Key industries, including agriculture, trade, and oil production, have suffered. Infrastructure damage and insecurity have disrupted supply chains, leading to food shortages and inflation (World Bank, 2023). As of late 2023, inflation in Sudan has exceeded 350%, with basic goods becoming unaffordable for large portions of the population (International Monetary Fund, 2023). The nation\u2019s GDP is projected to contract by at least 8% due to the collapse of key industries and capital flight. Additionally, Sudan\u2019s banking sector has struggled due to capital flight and international sanctions, further weakening the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Security Consequences for Sudan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n